Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


  • Jan

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Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 ( Jan 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1052.285
2027.058
3017.240
4011.228
507.691
605.100
703.446
802.186
901.153

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1180.604
2132.471
3114.807
4101.051
591.398
678.835
770.657
863.527
956.918
1052.285
1148.655
1244.867
1342.144
1439.543
1536.827
1634.775
1732.492
1830.288
1928.446
2027.058
2125.767
2224.387
2323.458
2422.152
2521.364
2620.702
2719.726
2818.977
2918.133
3017.240
3116.452
3215.681
3315.091
3414.527
3513.780
3613.203
3712.646
3812.143
3911.741
4011.228
4110.747
4210.401
4310.116
449.734
459.399
469.035
478.713
488.305
498.006
507.691
517.413
527.141
536.833
546.547
556.265
565.934
575.745
585.557
595.356
605.100
614.853
624.677
634.517
644.326
654.180
664.035
673.902
683.733
693.564
703.446
713.288
723.164
733.023
742.901
752.768
762.653
772.530
782.420
792.317
802.186
812.066
821.956
831.835
841.737
851.654
861.546
871.438
881.354
891.257
901.153
911.060
920.955
930.849
940.727
950.644
960.555
970.435
980.341
990.243


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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