Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2



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Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1033.37457.162
2018.10628.890
3011.65518.082
407.77011.556
505.4057.746
603.7304.973
702.3233.232
801.3741.907
900.5170.834

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1105.538207.932
282.283150.783
368.450129.751
459.113113.647
552.094102.007
646.48187.624
742.96178.220
838.63569.973
935.92162.422
1033.37457.162
1130.72353.061
1228.53648.816
1326.68545.747
1424.98342.793
1523.53839.750
1622.39537.482
1721.18834.911
1820.06332.446
1919.21430.413
2018.10628.890
2117.24727.470
2216.50025.896
2315.76024.924
2414.94523.473
2514.29322.619
2613.71021.897
2713.11820.800
2812.64219.964
2912.16519.071
3011.65518.082
3111.18017.232
3210.73416.370
3310.25215.730
349.82815.144
359.47514.312
369.18013.700
378.79713.091
388.45912.553
398.10012.111
407.77011.556
417.43611.034
427.23410.666
436.96910.352
446.6909.944
456.4619.585
466.2259.185
476.0478.849
485.8158.410
495.5928.082
505.4057.746
515.1917.448
525.0157.164
534.8176.823
544.6216.528
554.4686.209
564.3095.870
574.1605.667
584.0205.464
593.8595.254
603.7304.973
613.5964.717
623.4354.533
633.2674.361
643.1024.162
652.9814.008
662.8583.854
672.6783.714
682.5513.535
692.4343.357
702.3233.232
712.2283.065
722.1192.935
732.0212.786
741.9122.657
751.7992.518
761.7162.397
771.6352.268
781.5352.153
791.4642.045
801.3741.907
811.2671.783
821.1701.668
831.0831.541
840.9981.439
850.9051.353
860.8161.240
870.7381.129
880.6651.042
890.5950.941
900.5170.834
910.4410.738
920.3650.629
930.2710.520
940.1860.395
950.1120.311
960.0310.220
970.0000.098
980.0000.003
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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