Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile24.20018.477
Median48.01453.301
Mean59.95377.622
75% Quartile85.947117.289
Interquartile Range61.74798.811

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1207.363316.462
2182.619274.812
3167.004258.453
4156.895244.980
5150.113234.982
6142.539221.034
7136.758211.187
8132.938201.942
9128.406192.667
10124.493185.659
11121.185179.812
12118.054173.320
13115.077168.366
14112.008163.374
15109.551157.852
16106.975153.442
17103.750148.262
18101.293142.952
1998.862138.250
2096.422134.527
2194.196130.914
2291.506126.876
2389.556124.041
2487.738119.896
2585.973117.290
2684.336115.041
2782.274111.610
2880.500108.880
2978.392105.702
3076.086102.200
3174.37998.994
3272.79095.738
3371.11393.169
3469.66590.638
3568.22587.172
3666.63784.408
3765.05881.659
3863.35879.105
3962.12577.015
4060.80874.282
4159.54971.656
4258.07469.722
4356.50168.102
4455.37065.891
4554.12363.918
4652.78661.730
4751.31559.763
4850.24557.225
4949.34055.327
5048.01453.301
5146.85351.485
5245.75849.692
5344.84647.626
5443.61345.684
5542.61643.749
5641.63541.453
5740.66840.123
5839.76938.800
5938.50037.372
6037.78035.539
6137.19833.757
6236.04532.486
6335.02131.322
6433.97529.924
6533.07328.860
6632.21427.795
6731.16326.820
6830.18625.577
6929.32424.334
7028.41823.462
7127.64822.298
7226.87421.390
7326.11120.352
7425.09719.449
7524.17718.476
7623.29717.630
7722.25016.735
7821.32115.932
7920.25415.184
8019.55314.234
8118.63913.374
8217.98612.583
8317.13211.719
8416.30811.021
8515.59810.436
8614.7489.676
8713.9108.925
8812.9558.345
8912.0317.676
9011.2436.967
9110.5436.339
929.6185.637
938.9394.936
948.0784.147
957.2463.623
966.0433.063
975.2102.327
984.0071.769
992.5501.207


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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