Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile8.3477.318
Median17.14526.979
Mean24.59737.015
75% Quartile32.24558.072
Interquartile Range23.89950.753

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1114.257143.538
295.898125.816
383.878118.853
476.268113.117
570.783108.858
666.468102.913
762.70298.713
859.84094.766
957.19290.801
1054.37287.802
1152.44985.296
1249.88782.509
1347.81680.379
1446.01178.229
1544.46175.846
1642.90873.939
1741.41171.693
1840.22469.383
1938.82967.331
2037.71765.701
2136.40564.113
2235.32462.332
2334.36361.078
2433.15959.236
2532.25158.072
2631.28757.065
2730.52155.521
2829.63454.287
2928.91652.842
3028.20151.240
3127.42949.763
3226.76848.252
3326.09047.051
3425.48045.860
3524.87944.215
3624.22042.891
3723.70541.562
3823.16640.317
3922.63239.289
4022.04837.933
4121.49036.616
4220.91135.637
4320.43034.811
4419.92833.675
4519.32232.651
4618.79531.504
4718.24930.464
4817.85329.108
4917.48928.083
5017.14526.979
5116.72425.981
5216.31224.988
5315.94023.834
5415.51122.740
5515.08621.643
5614.69120.331
5714.42119.568
5814.03918.806
5913.73917.982
6013.44716.921
6113.06015.890
6212.68215.154
6312.34514.482
6412.02513.676
6511.67013.065
6611.40512.456
6711.03411.900
6810.57411.197
6910.19510.500
709.88710.014
719.5939.371
729.2568.875
738.9308.313
748.6987.831
758.3467.317
768.1166.877
777.8776.418
787.6046.011
797.3555.638
807.0645.173
816.7604.759
826.4864.387
836.2053.988
845.8383.673
855.5663.414
865.2723.084
874.9902.768
884.7242.529
894.3902.260
904.1321.985
913.8541.748
923.5651.493
933.2831.249
942.8830.989
952.5730.825
962.2590.658
971.8740.455
981.4730.315
990.7280.188


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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