Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile12.91112.881
Median27.09934.806
Mean43.27367.372
75% Quartile56.37089.263
Interquartile Range43.45976.382

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1237.625388.256
2190.382319.640
3165.399292.893
4150.283271.019
5142.156254.908
6129.925232.667
7118.383217.179
8110.823202.842
9104.475188.699
1098.978178.203
1194.404169.588
1290.495160.193
1387.612153.156
1483.781146.190
1580.279138.643
1676.557132.743
1773.765125.964
1871.636119.193
1969.009113.357
2066.038108.844
2164.451104.559
2262.09899.882
2360.11096.672
2458.05592.083
2556.37389.265
2654.36686.874
2752.00883.299
2850.50080.517
2949.03677.350
3047.62473.946
3146.34370.909
3245.31667.900
3343.94165.579
3442.49863.338
3541.44360.340
3640.04958.007
3738.77955.736
3837.62453.668
3936.67152.007
4035.76849.873
4134.85447.864
4233.66346.409
4332.54945.206
4431.82443.586
4530.93942.162
4630.15640.604
4729.31039.223
4828.53337.467
4927.83136.172
5027.09934.806
5126.41633.594
5225.68832.410
5325.06731.059
5424.41529.802
5523.71028.560
5622.91227.100
5722.25826.260
5821.61325.429
5920.91324.536
6020.24523.394
6119.83022.290
6219.45221.505
6318.99520.787
6418.38019.927
6517.96819.274
6617.41018.619
6716.91518.021
6816.32517.258
6915.78316.496
7015.22315.960
7114.61115.244
7214.19314.684
7313.69814.043
7413.30613.484
7512.90612.880
7612.41812.354
7711.96311.795
7811.43711.291
7910.87010.820
8010.32710.219
819.9479.672
829.5299.166
839.1708.609
848.7808.157
858.1857.775
867.7317.275
877.2926.778
886.8486.390
896.4595.939
905.9715.456
915.4445.023
925.0004.534
934.3724.037
943.9243.467
953.4743.081
962.9972.661
972.3542.094
981.6701.648
990.9141.181


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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