Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile57.25518.042
Median102.24946.532
Mean121.31178.627
75% Quartile165.364109.851
Interquartile Range108.10991.809

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1397.682389.085
2352.763327.548
3320.088303.479
4300.142283.730
5283.799269.134
6269.819248.884
7259.606234.692
8250.622221.466
9243.329208.316
10235.201198.473
11228.795190.334
12222.544181.383
13217.702174.622
14211.358167.874
15206.094160.497
16201.441154.675
17197.172147.921
18192.505141.101
19187.716135.155
20183.653130.512
21179.806126.066
22176.145121.167
23171.553117.774
24168.652112.883
25165.412109.852
26162.198107.265
27159.084103.368
28155.393100.312
29152.49796.804
30149.19893.002
31146.82889.580
32144.10486.162
33141.42183.505
34139.68080.923
35136.73877.443
36133.62874.714
37130.87972.040
38128.72869.590
39126.16867.610
40123.60065.054
41121.30062.631
42119.27960.869
43116.69659.405
44114.12857.426
45112.32455.678
46110.78753.758
47108.92952.048
48106.61649.864
49103.90248.246
50102.24946.532
51100.22945.007
5298.35143.510
5396.55241.797
5494.19640.196
5592.20038.609
5690.56036.735
5788.94235.654
5886.55534.580
5985.01833.424
6082.94531.943
6181.29330.504
6279.36629.478
6377.66328.539
6475.97627.410
6573.98826.550
6672.21125.687
6770.72924.897
6869.18623.887
6967.63422.875
7066.29822.162
7164.33221.207
7262.63720.460
7360.61219.602
7459.17718.853
7557.25218.041
7655.73517.332
7753.82016.577
7852.24615.896
7950.32315.257
8048.87714.442
8147.17613.696
8245.81613.006
8344.25612.245
8442.34211.624
8540.29611.100
8638.63810.412
8737.1369.725
8835.1519.188
8933.0558.562
9030.7797.890
9128.9607.286
9227.0876.600
9325.2315.901
9423.1365.095
9520.3234.547
9617.9233.947
9715.2083.132
9812.4812.486
998.5921.802


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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