Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2



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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.977
Median6.740
Mean20.341
75% Quartile22.351
Interquartile Range20.374

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1168.452
2131.713
3117.332
4105.779
597.036
685.646
777.770
870.533
963.606
1058.597
1154.586
1250.335
1347.199
1444.135
1540.934
1638.521
1735.761
1833.094
1930.882
2029.220
2127.667
2225.945
2324.881
2423.294
2522.362
2621.573
2720.379
2819.471
2918.504
3017.437
3116.524
3215.601
3314.919
3414.298
3513.419
3612.777
3712.140
3811.581
3911.125
4010.553
4110.019
429.644
439.326
448.915
458.555
468.156
477.822
487.389
497.067
506.740
516.451
526.177
535.850
545.569
555.269
564.950
574.761
584.573
594.379
604.122
613.889
623.723
633.569
643.392
653.255
663.119
672.996
682.840
692.686
702.578
712.436
722.326
732.201
742.092
751.977
761.877
771.771
781.677
791.590
801.480
811.381
821.291
831.193
841.114
851.048
860.962
870.879
880.814
890.740
900.662
910.594
920.518
930.442
940.358
950.302
960.243
970.167
980.109
990.052


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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