Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2



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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 ( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.3373.960
Median10.25311.837
Mean20.46330.762
75% Quartile24.39434.856
Interquartile Range20.05830.896

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1143.598242.410
2111.461188.466
395.605167.745
484.875151.031
575.070138.906
667.309122.510
761.121111.390
856.984101.361
952.87291.758
1049.83184.840
1146.60079.306
1243.89373.429
1341.43969.139
1439.38764.990
1537.67760.607
1635.83957.263
1733.85953.511
1832.48249.860
1931.04946.789
2029.73744.464
2128.63542.295
2227.45939.971
2326.45838.401
2425.30936.192
2524.42634.857
2623.55833.735
2722.72932.079
2821.87830.808
2921.05329.377
3020.23427.860
3119.48626.525
3218.71325.218
3318.13124.220
3417.60123.266
3516.95422.003
3616.42021.030
3715.83320.092
3815.18819.246
3914.74118.571
4014.20717.710
4113.71216.906
4213.12916.328
4312.79015.853
4412.43615.216
4512.13714.660
4611.66214.055
4711.32113.522
4810.97412.849
4910.62912.355
5010.25311.837
519.91611.381
529.62910.937
539.29010.433
548.9709.966
558.6839.508
568.3988.973
578.1708.666
587.9218.364
597.6528.041
607.3887.630
617.1437.234
626.9126.954
636.6696.699
646.4636.395
656.2626.165
666.0505.935
675.8855.726
685.6705.460
695.4495.196
705.2575.010
715.0544.764
724.8624.572
734.7064.354
744.5194.164
754.3343.959
764.1273.782
773.9713.594
783.8003.426
793.6263.269
803.4223.070
813.2132.889
823.0832.723
832.9202.542
842.7672.395
852.5312.271
862.3602.111
872.1901.952
882.0321.829
891.8671.686
901.6901.535
911.5431.400
921.3931.249
931.2441.097
941.1150.925
950.9720.810
960.7680.686
970.5730.521
980.3410.394
990.1390.264


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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