Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2



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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile16.2187.411
Median33.23320.455
Mean49.76443.737
75% Quartile65.53654.802
Interquartile Range49.31847.390

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1240.252284.312
2201.327229.026
3180.630207.592
4165.235190.149
5152.076177.371
6141.214159.859
7133.376147.776
8125.895136.695
9118.751125.880
10113.102117.939
11108.301111.485
12103.412104.516
1399.60599.346
1495.50294.276
1591.57488.837
1688.49484.625
1785.46979.833
1882.86175.098
1979.64171.058
2077.10467.961
2174.56365.043
2272.16861.882
2369.68759.727
2467.60556.669
2565.53854.802
2663.75553.227
2762.04550.883
2860.37949.069
2958.92847.015
3057.08944.820
3155.43942.873
3253.57940.953
3352.08339.480
3450.32838.063
3549.21136.174
3648.18034.712
3747.07933.293
3845.68032.007
3944.46430.976
4042.97229.656
4141.93828.417
4240.73527.522
4339.80526.783
4438.61625.791
4537.54124.921
4636.62623.971
4735.75923.131
4834.81322.065
4933.91521.281
5033.23320.455
5132.26019.724
5231.43219.010
5330.55118.198
5429.79317.443
5529.03216.699
5628.46015.826
5727.80715.324
5827.02214.828
5926.20914.296
6025.47913.617
6124.90212.960
6224.24512.494
6323.60412.069
6422.75511.560
6522.11511.173
6621.26710.787
6720.56410.433
6820.0089.983
6919.3509.534
7018.8169.218
7118.2568.797
7217.7048.468
7317.2148.092
7416.6777.765
7516.2157.411
7615.6397.103
7715.1896.775
7814.5526.481
7913.8426.206
8013.2785.856
8112.6275.537
8212.1675.242
8311.6674.919
8411.1194.656
8510.5434.434
8610.0954.145
879.6013.857
889.0703.632
898.5483.372
908.0303.094
917.4372.844
926.7932.563
936.0612.278
945.5291.951
954.8171.731
964.0421.491
973.5141.169
982.7890.916
991.9560.653


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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