Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2



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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile16.52112.881
Median34.14934.806
Mean52.58567.372
75% Quartile69.43389.263
Interquartile Range52.91276.382

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1265.831388.256
2220.122319.640
3191.455292.893
4176.795271.019
5166.867254.908
6152.922232.667
7141.503217.179
8133.353202.842
9125.902188.699
10119.422178.203
11113.728169.588
12109.709160.193
13106.023153.156
14101.820146.190
1598.217138.643
1694.468132.743
1790.888125.964
1888.030119.193
1984.832113.357
2081.415108.844
2179.501104.559
2277.03499.882
2374.20696.672
2471.92792.083
2569.45689.265
2667.62686.874
2764.71183.299
2862.75980.517
2960.85877.350
3059.54073.946
3158.07170.909
3256.51967.900
3354.74265.579
3453.11463.338
3551.89960.340
3650.21258.007
3748.59555.736
3847.42953.668
3945.96452.007
4044.80749.873
4143.57847.864
4242.23846.409
4341.15245.206
4440.08443.586
4538.83842.162
4637.75540.604
4736.79639.223
4835.91937.467
4935.06636.172
5034.14934.806
5133.27233.594
5232.55532.410
5331.62431.059
5430.72729.802
5530.12328.560
5629.03427.100
5728.18126.260
5827.35925.429
5926.55624.536
6025.85723.394
6125.15422.290
6224.59121.505
6324.03120.787
6423.43519.927
6522.86019.274
6622.12318.619
6721.51018.021
6820.77917.258
6920.08816.496
7019.41015.960
7118.66115.244
7218.11114.684
7317.50014.043
7416.94113.484
7516.52012.880
7615.93112.354
7715.35011.795
7814.66611.291
7913.92110.820
8013.26010.219
8112.7619.672
8212.2989.166
8311.7688.609
8411.2988.157
8510.6317.775
8610.0267.275
879.5356.778
888.8906.390
898.4175.939
907.8635.456
917.2175.023
926.5894.534
935.8934.037
945.2283.467
954.6563.081
964.0312.661
973.2452.094
982.5011.648
991.5491.181


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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