Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2



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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2 ( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile24.45418.042
Median46.80646.532
Mean63.34878.627
75% Quartile84.806109.851
Interquartile Range60.35291.809

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1274.011389.085
2227.591327.548
3206.626303.479
4187.018283.730
5173.080269.134
6163.482248.884
7155.929234.692
8147.336221.466
9141.381208.316
10135.322198.473
11130.402190.334
12125.556181.383
13121.944174.622
14117.929167.874
15113.682160.497
16109.521154.675
17106.767147.921
18103.371141.101
1999.784135.155
2096.730130.512
2193.704126.066
2291.454121.167
2389.444117.774
2487.056112.883
2584.859109.852
2682.792107.265
2781.098103.368
2879.318100.312
2977.45396.804
3075.73293.002
3173.72289.580
3272.14386.162
3370.37583.505
3468.69780.923
3567.03077.443
3665.28274.714
3763.80472.040
3862.02069.590
3960.80367.610
4058.98765.054
4157.78162.631
4256.42760.869
4355.17859.405
4453.96357.426
4552.64455.678
4651.78553.758
4750.72352.048
4849.48149.864
4948.18948.246
5046.80646.532
5145.91445.007
5244.80243.510
5343.66741.797
5442.57340.196
5541.54938.609
5640.62536.735
5739.81735.654
5838.83034.580
5937.84533.424
6036.96731.943
6136.08630.504
6235.29029.478
6334.36328.539
6433.42827.410
6532.44026.550
6631.57025.687
6730.67724.897
6829.82723.887
6929.04622.875
7028.02122.162
7127.34721.207
7226.76120.460
7325.86019.602
7425.15518.853
7524.44618.041
7623.53417.332
7722.72016.577
7821.72515.896
7920.78415.257
8019.98614.442
8119.12313.696
8218.45513.006
8317.73012.245
8416.82511.624
8516.07011.100
8615.40710.412
8714.3729.725
8813.5999.188
8912.3608.562
9011.4947.890
9110.6657.286
929.8446.600
938.8295.901
947.8435.095
956.8204.547
965.5623.947
974.3013.132
982.9462.486
990.7291.802


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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