Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


Return to catchment list
Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
May7.9395.1191.3700.0001.00598.953
May-Jun22.84130.01537.6340.1809.213142.779
May-Jul45.08247.40048.9380.66715.877231.909

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1078.060117.939
2050.36867.961
3036.42544.820
4027.35429.656
5020.81120.455
6015.86313.617
7011.6019.218
808.1075.856
904.7923.094

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1183.128284.312
2152.565229.026
3133.763207.592
4120.170190.149
5108.198177.371
6100.279159.859
793.090147.776
886.435136.695
982.049125.880
1078.060117.939
1173.470111.485
1270.040104.516
1367.34899.346
1463.89194.276
1560.78188.837
1658.26384.625
1756.07379.833
1854.35775.098
1952.16071.058
2050.36867.961
2148.74765.043
2247.01761.882
2344.88059.727
2443.47256.669
2542.15354.802
2640.88253.227
2739.89150.883
2838.83549.069
2937.59347.015
3036.42544.820
3135.14542.873
3233.98040.953
3333.02539.480
3432.07838.063
3531.21336.174
3630.30934.712
3729.45933.293
3828.88732.007
3928.05830.976
4027.35429.656
4126.45628.417
4225.60627.522
4324.88326.783
4424.14425.791
4523.54824.921
4623.11423.971
4722.46023.131
4821.87522.065
4921.41021.281
5020.81120.455
5120.17319.724
5219.62919.010
5319.07118.198
5418.49917.443
5517.96716.699
5617.52015.826
5717.19815.324
5816.77914.828
5916.33814.296
6015.86313.617
6115.41712.960
6214.98412.494
6314.57312.069
6414.07211.560
6513.61311.173
6613.07710.787
6712.60110.433
6812.2559.983
6911.9099.534
7011.6019.218
7111.2148.797
7210.9598.468
7310.5648.092
7410.3017.765
759.8647.411
769.6327.103
779.3186.775
788.8796.481
798.4936.206
808.1075.856
817.7045.537
827.4075.242
837.0624.919
846.7044.656
856.3904.434
866.0694.145
875.7803.857
885.4643.632
895.1483.372
904.7923.094
914.4342.844
923.9702.563
933.6362.278
943.2201.951
952.7731.731
962.3701.491
972.0041.169
981.5160.916
990.9800.653


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence