Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep25.41512.2993.4671.3287.41854.479
Sep-Oct44.31921.2124.7771.40111.497141.846
Sep-Nov55.99223.1505.5351.40115.867169.112

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1083.736125.654
2059.38293.990
3045.66273.556
4035.48555.223
5027.79740.645
6022.16627.514
7016.90918.160
8012.07210.880
907.4575.181

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1163.595205.959
2135.792180.412
3122.945170.375
4112.890162.107
5105.815155.970
6100.530147.406
795.543141.356
890.889135.674
986.941129.969
1083.736125.654
1181.009122.052
1278.572118.049
1375.972114.990
1473.526111.906
1571.108108.490
1668.522105.758
1765.764102.544
1863.58899.243
1961.65496.314
2059.38293.990
2157.94691.731
2256.45489.200
2355.19687.420
2453.43784.809
2552.17683.164
2650.58481.742
2749.36379.565
2848.00577.828
2946.57375.800
3045.66273.556
3144.14871.494
3242.92169.389
3341.82367.722
3440.67966.073
3539.54263.802
3638.56861.982
3737.73860.161
3837.05958.461
3936.22057.063
4035.48555.223
4134.84953.445
4233.90052.128
4333.00751.019
4432.06549.498
4531.40548.133
4630.65746.609
4729.82845.232
4829.15243.441
4928.46842.093
5027.79740.645
5127.11239.338
5226.60838.040
5326.16736.535
5425.63535.111
5525.06833.681
5624.52331.974
5723.87330.978
5823.36429.983
5922.79028.905
6022.16627.514
6121.51626.153
6220.98325.178
6320.51024.282
6419.95523.202
6519.40522.377
6618.79021.549
6718.38220.789
6817.87319.818
6917.34618.845
7016.90918.160
7116.45017.245
7215.86316.530
7315.35215.712
7414.85915.000
7514.43214.231
7614.01913.563
7713.58712.856
7813.08612.221
7912.50711.630
8012.07210.880
8111.69610.201
8211.2069.577
8310.7328.896
8410.2428.348
859.7927.888
869.4157.292
878.9906.705
888.5316.252
898.0275.731
907.4575.181
916.9564.696
926.5314.155
936.0223.618
945.3433.016
954.7522.620
964.2332.199
973.5001.651
982.9191.240
991.9780.832


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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