Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1960+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1961) (GL)
Dec8.4960.9160.1120.0298.31835.745
Dec-Jan16.8382.2800.1140.03312.83497.974
Dec-Feb22.8657.1910.6590.19317.173110.059

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1060.521
2037.378
3025.654
4017.481
5012.304
608.337
705.721
803.676
901.953

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1130.687
2107.737
398.796
491.488
586.108
678.684
773.517
868.736
964.020
1060.521
1157.650
1254.518
1352.172
1449.849
1547.332
1645.363
1743.100
1840.839
1938.888
2037.378
2135.944
2234.377
2333.300
2431.760
2530.814
2630.010
2728.807
2827.871
2926.803
3025.654
3124.628
3223.610
3322.824
3422.065
3521.047
3620.254
3719.481
3818.777
3918.210
4017.481
4116.794
4216.296
4315.884
4415.328
4514.839
4614.304
4713.828
4813.223
4912.777
5012.304
5111.886
5211.475
5311.007
5410.571
5510.139
569.631
579.338
589.048
598.736
608.337
617.950
627.675
637.423
647.121
656.891
666.660
676.449
686.180
695.910
705.721
715.467
725.268
735.041
744.842
754.627
764.439
774.240
784.059
793.891
803.676
813.479
823.297
833.097
842.933
852.795
862.614
872.434
882.293
892.129
901.953
911.794
921.615
931.432
941.222
951.079
960.922
970.710
980.542
990.365


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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