Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10114.124151.634
2088.352116.095
3071.29092.888
4056.86271.544
5045.16853.817
6035.75736.873
7027.06524.146
8018.60514.044
9010.9956.309

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1183.098241.355
2162.750212.825
3153.474201.615
4143.244192.380
5135.858185.524
6129.445175.955
7124.648169.194
8121.493162.841
9117.549156.461
10114.124151.634
11111.159147.602
12108.219143.119
13106.127139.693
14103.476136.234
15100.627132.403
1697.861129.336
1794.988125.725
1892.319122.013
1989.976118.715
2088.352116.095
2186.611113.546
2284.210110.686
2382.831108.672
2480.964105.714
2579.281103.847
2678.109102.231
2776.35799.754
2874.51697.774
2972.96595.457
3071.29092.888
3170.08090.520
3268.27688.097
3366.74586.171
3465.36784.262
3563.88181.625
3662.42479.502
3760.97977.371
3859.50275.372
3958.17073.723
4056.86271.544
4155.86269.428
4254.54367.853
4353.21066.522
4452.29264.690
4550.99863.037
4649.83061.182
4748.66659.497
4847.64657.292
4946.33755.622
5045.16853.817
5143.88052.179
5242.78950.542
5341.65848.630
5440.61446.809
5539.96944.968
5639.11342.752
5738.30741.451
5837.47040.145
5936.61238.722
6035.75736.873
6134.90235.053
6234.16133.742
6333.32432.532
6432.24631.067
6531.26729.943
6630.52128.811
6729.49227.769
6828.60526.435
6927.82225.093
7027.06524.146
7126.32222.879
7225.36521.887
7324.34120.751
7423.62819.761
7522.76318.693
7621.91417.765
7721.03716.782
7820.31315.901
7919.47115.082
8018.60514.044
8117.94513.107
8217.22312.249
8316.38411.315
8415.51510.565
8514.7449.939
8614.0029.131
8713.3288.339
8812.6787.731
8911.8247.037
9010.9956.309
9110.3215.670
929.5214.966
938.6714.273
947.6893.508
956.8933.011
966.1132.489
975.0171.823
983.7071.336
992.3770.866


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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