Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1056.482121.359
2035.93281.370
3024.92157.824
4018.24639.490
5013.03727.202
609.56817.715
706.79511.613
804.5207.052
902.4103.460

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1126.408227.233
2105.364193.391
393.359180.111
484.965169.185
577.509161.085
672.181149.803
766.840141.856
863.118134.412
959.247126.966
1056.482121.359
1153.544116.695
1251.146111.536
1348.657107.615
1446.757103.679
1544.46599.347
1642.56995.905
1740.47491.886
1838.87587.793
1937.49384.198
2035.93281.370
2134.33378.646
2233.27575.624
2332.05973.519
2430.90070.466
2529.80268.563
2628.68166.932
2727.72764.462
2826.78462.516
2925.78960.271
3024.92157.824
3124.19955.611
3223.39753.390
3322.76651.657
3421.94949.968
3521.30647.683
3620.56745.886
3719.96344.120
3819.35142.499
3918.81041.187
4018.24639.490
4117.63937.882
4217.08236.710
4316.58435.737
4415.93834.422
4515.48833.261
4615.05731.985
4714.55730.851
4814.15729.404
4913.62128.334
5013.03727.202
5112.59126.197
5212.21225.213
5311.81524.089
5411.36023.043
5511.03522.009
5610.70920.793
5710.46020.095
5810.21819.403
599.90218.661
609.56817.715
619.22816.800
628.96816.151
638.67815.559
648.43514.851
658.13514.314
667.86013.778
677.58713.289
687.23612.667
697.02412.047
706.79511.613
716.55211.034
726.25910.584
736.03710.070
745.8339.624
755.6019.143
765.3208.726
775.1318.284
784.9307.888
794.6977.519
804.5207.052
814.3346.628
824.1206.238
833.8665.812
843.6285.468
853.4115.179
863.1814.803
872.9554.431
882.7874.144
892.5803.812
902.4103.460
912.2273.147
921.9792.796
931.7372.445
941.5372.047
951.2751.783
961.0241.499
970.7981.123
980.5760.836
990.2060.544


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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