Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1082.900121.359
2057.37681.370
3041.67057.824
4030.92039.490
5022.75427.202
6016.80117.715
7012.22211.613
808.2037.052
904.5403.460

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1160.758227.233
2139.967193.391
3124.757180.111
4115.208169.185
5106.141161.085
6100.883149.803
795.941141.856
891.069134.412
986.962126.966
1082.900121.359
1179.607116.695
1276.387111.536
1373.252107.615
1470.801103.679
1567.86499.347
1665.02595.905
1763.34691.886
1861.40887.793
1959.22484.198
2057.37681.370
2155.18478.646
2253.57775.624
2351.90873.519
2450.48470.466
2548.82668.563
2647.43966.932
2745.63164.462
2844.46662.516
2942.87160.271
3041.67057.824
3140.63955.611
3239.41153.390
3337.87551.657
3436.78149.968
3535.69447.683
3634.75645.886
3733.77844.120
3832.67942.499
3931.71341.187
4030.92039.490
4130.03737.882
4229.15436.710
4328.18635.737
4427.45934.422
4526.70533.261
4625.82431.985
4725.01730.851
4824.32129.404
4923.56328.334
5022.75427.202
5122.11726.197
5221.50725.213
5321.00724.089
5420.21723.043
5519.46622.009
5618.99320.793
5718.45520.095
5818.00519.403
5917.32218.661
6016.80117.715
6116.21416.800
6215.70416.151
6315.30815.559
6414.93914.851
6514.50814.314
6614.09813.778
6713.63713.289
6813.19312.667
6912.67512.047
7012.22211.613
7111.78211.034
7211.39710.584
7310.88210.070
7410.5019.624
7510.1359.143
769.6348.726
779.2268.284
788.9057.888
798.5267.519
808.2037.052
817.8036.628
827.4756.238
837.1055.812
846.6025.468
856.1815.179
865.9304.803
875.5594.431
885.1654.144
894.8833.812
904.5403.460
914.2233.147
923.7552.796
933.4222.445
942.9892.047
952.5951.783
962.1511.499
971.7081.123
981.2990.836
990.7740.544


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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