Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.62867.925
2010.98740.451
308.50227.213
406.66318.268
505.38212.706
604.3498.489
703.3955.726
802.4903.575
901.6411.770

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.744156.126
228.988126.963
325.791115.644
422.487106.420
520.61999.653
619.18590.356
717.93983.922
817.09478.002
916.31872.201
1015.62867.925
1114.96564.435
1214.33360.652
1313.79357.834
1413.32455.060
1512.86452.071
1612.46849.747
1712.09647.091
1811.69544.454
1911.32042.192
2010.98740.451
2110.63538.805
2210.29437.015
2310.01035.791
249.79134.046
259.57332.978
269.37032.074
279.18030.725
288.95629.678
298.68628.488
308.50227.213
318.28026.078
328.07224.955
337.86824.091
347.67723.257
357.50122.144
367.32921.278
377.15820.437
386.98219.671
396.86119.057
406.66318.268
416.50317.525
426.38016.988
436.25916.544
446.13715.946
456.00015.420
465.87114.845
475.75914.336
485.61013.688
495.48913.210
505.38212.706
515.25912.259
525.14011.822
535.05311.323
544.95310.859
554.84710.400
564.7119.860
574.6009.550
584.5349.242
594.4508.912
604.3498.489
614.2258.079
624.1317.788
634.0407.522
643.9397.203
653.8456.960
663.7536.716
673.6726.494
683.5876.210
693.5015.926
703.3955.726
713.3125.458
723.2285.249
733.1335.010
743.0234.801
752.9244.574
762.8444.377
772.7394.167
782.6393.978
792.5653.801
802.4903.575
812.4193.369
822.3193.178
832.2402.967
842.1612.796
852.0892.652
862.0052.462
871.9202.273
881.8152.126
891.7221.954
901.6411.770
911.5581.604
921.4361.416
931.3451.226
941.1881.006
951.0530.857
960.9090.694
970.7580.472
980.6000.298
990.3150.113


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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