Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.75224.542
206.45114.002
304.7449.586
403.5386.639
502.7104.748
602.0333.237
701.4992.179
800.9641.293
900.3950.473

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.13697.279
220.06762.989
316.99953.068
414.79046.065
513.53841.461
612.31035.780
711.52232.233
810.85729.213
910.30126.458
109.75224.542
119.26023.045
128.65321.483
138.34520.359
148.04219.281
157.65018.151
167.39917.291
177.19116.329
186.96215.392
196.73214.602
206.45114.002
216.24713.440
226.03812.834
235.83312.422
245.67111.840
255.48011.485
265.32511.185
275.17310.740
285.02210.395
294.89510.004
304.7449.586
314.6049.214
324.4238.846
334.2838.562
344.1608.289
354.0497.922
363.9437.637
373.8477.359
383.7427.106
393.6356.902
403.5386.639
413.4706.391
423.3846.211
433.3016.061
443.2095.860
453.1235.681
463.0445.486
472.9765.312
482.8935.089
492.8004.924
502.7104.748
512.6354.592
522.5654.439
532.5074.263
542.4374.098
552.3773.934
562.3063.739
572.2283.626
582.1663.514
592.0963.393
602.0333.237
611.9703.084
621.9272.975
631.8612.875
641.8092.753
651.7622.660
661.7172.567
671.6542.481
681.5922.370
691.5412.258
701.4992.179
711.4462.073
721.3871.989
731.3171.892
741.2681.807
751.2081.714
761.1741.632
771.1251.545
781.0711.465
791.0161.390
800.9641.293
810.8961.204
820.8451.120
830.7921.027
840.7210.951
850.6740.886
860.6180.799
870.5750.712
880.5110.643
890.4460.561
900.3950.473
910.3310.392
920.2510.299
930.1730.202
940.1100.087
950.0360.007
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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