Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.96115.172
204.6597.231
303.1764.382
402.1212.699
501.3851.728
600.9171.028
700.5350.592
800.1940.263
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.45889.184
220.18552.147
315.82441.773
413.78434.787
512.45830.184
611.48124.947
710.57821.757
89.60019.094
98.56216.753
107.96115.172
117.56913.965
127.11212.738
136.61311.864
146.25011.032
155.90010.185
165.6139.559
175.3098.856
185.0738.187
194.8847.639
204.6597.231
214.4816.852
224.2826.434
234.1326.176
243.9515.793
253.7875.568
263.6635.378
273.5385.091
283.4164.872
293.2894.639
303.1764.382
313.0234.161
322.8873.938
332.7943.772
342.6903.621
352.5883.406
362.4813.249
372.3873.092
382.2942.954
392.2122.841
402.1212.699
412.0392.565
421.9502.471
431.8552.391
441.7862.287
451.7132.195
461.6362.093
471.5632.008
481.5021.896
491.4391.813
501.3851.728
511.3361.652
521.2851.580
531.2311.494
541.1831.420
551.1331.339
561.0891.254
571.0441.203
581.0101.151
590.9611.099
600.9171.028
610.8720.964
620.8370.917
630.7990.874
640.7630.824
650.7160.786
660.6860.747
670.6480.712
680.6190.668
690.5730.623
700.5350.592
710.5030.550
720.4610.518
730.4240.481
740.3850.449
750.3570.414
760.3180.384
770.2850.352
780.2570.324
790.2270.297
800.1940.263
810.1700.232
820.1380.204
830.0970.172
840.0720.147
850.0390.126
860.0090.098
870.0000.071
880.0000.050
890.0000.025
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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