Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10121.535151.634
2097.334116.095
3078.64092.888
4063.21271.544
5050.27853.817
6040.56936.873
7030.36024.146
8021.17614.044
9012.5536.309

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1190.775241.355
2172.407212.825
3162.328201.615
4154.346192.380
5143.836185.524
6138.060175.955
7133.308169.194
8128.924162.841
9125.290156.461
10121.535151.634
11118.416147.602
12115.348143.119
13112.824139.693
14110.309136.234
15107.528132.403
16105.644129.336
17103.652125.725
18101.637122.013
1999.448118.715
2097.334116.095
2194.610113.546
2292.547110.686
2390.602108.672
2488.901105.714
2587.272103.847
2685.621102.231
2783.88299.754
2882.01297.774
2980.10095.457
3078.64092.888
3176.74790.520
3275.16488.097
3373.42286.171
3471.75284.262
3570.47981.625
3669.00679.502
3767.50477.371
3865.85875.372
3964.76273.723
4063.21271.544
4161.84069.428
4260.65167.853
4359.23766.522
4458.19464.690
4557.09063.037
4655.70361.182
4754.44459.497
4852.95757.292
4951.56655.622
5050.27853.817
5149.32752.179
5248.51550.542
5347.54448.630
5446.41546.809
5545.24644.968
5644.40542.752
5743.52341.451
5842.68440.145
5941.65638.722
6040.56936.873
6139.41235.053
6238.40433.742
6337.27632.532
6436.22031.067
6535.18229.943
6634.24528.811
6733.18527.769
6832.23126.435
6931.45825.093
7030.36024.146
7129.44722.879
7228.41221.887
7327.38120.751
7426.56319.761
7525.73318.693
7624.76217.765
7724.01116.782
7823.03115.901
7922.07515.082
8021.17614.044
8120.44213.107
8219.52912.249
8318.53911.315
8417.71010.565
8517.0549.939
8616.0569.131
8715.1818.339
8814.4047.731
8913.5407.037
9012.5536.309
9111.8175.670
9210.7714.966
939.9704.273
948.9493.508
958.0583.011
966.9092.489
975.7031.823
984.3681.336
992.8670.866


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence