Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.70067.925
2021.44140.451
3016.67727.213
4013.24318.268
5010.82012.706
608.8178.489
707.1375.726
805.3103.575
903.6501.770

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
162.775156.126
252.350126.963
347.279115.644
442.189106.420
538.84299.653
636.04290.356
734.05383.922
832.54678.002
930.99672.201
1029.70067.925
1128.59864.435
1227.43660.652
1326.42757.834
1425.42355.060
1524.54452.071
1623.88649.747
1723.12447.091
1822.50044.454
1921.90442.192
2021.44140.451
2120.83138.805
2220.24437.015
2319.58235.791
2419.17334.046
2518.73032.978
2618.30132.074
2717.88530.725
2817.49429.678
2917.11928.488
3016.67727.213
3116.31026.078
3215.85224.955
3315.49224.091
3415.18923.257
3514.76022.144
3614.40521.278
3714.12320.437
3813.83619.671
3913.46019.057
4013.24318.268
4112.94717.525
4212.67916.988
4312.48116.544
4412.25015.946
4512.00815.420
4611.81514.845
4711.52514.336
4811.23613.688
4911.03813.210
5010.82012.706
5110.59112.259
5210.40611.822
5310.21411.323
549.95710.859
559.77310.400
569.5589.860
579.3759.550
589.1959.242
599.0078.912
608.8178.489
618.6408.079
628.4697.788
638.2747.522
648.0957.203
657.8946.960
667.7476.716
677.5956.494
687.4386.210
697.3065.926
707.1375.726
716.9455.458
726.7605.249
736.6045.010
746.4294.801
756.1984.574
766.0094.377
775.8394.167
785.6433.978
795.4433.801
805.3103.575
815.1683.369
824.9803.178
834.8522.967
844.6642.796
854.4932.652
864.3622.462
874.1782.273
884.0092.126
893.8321.954
903.6501.770
913.4881.604
923.2791.416
933.0341.226
942.7931.006
952.5700.857
962.2940.694
971.9730.472
981.6350.298
991.2000.113


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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