Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.6944.575
Median6.67112.706
Mean9.51825.495
75% Quartile12.02532.978
Interquartile Range8.33028.403

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
146.182156.126
238.033126.963
332.295115.644
429.820106.420
526.99699.653
624.79790.356
723.11283.922
821.88578.002
920.86372.201
1020.01567.925
1119.16464.435
1218.15060.652
1317.38457.834
1416.70155.060
1516.20852.071
1615.76549.747
1715.32347.091
1814.83344.454
1914.36442.192
2013.89540.451
2113.48938.805
2213.04537.015
2312.67835.791
2412.32834.046
2512.02632.978
2611.74432.074
2711.43130.725
2811.15129.678
2910.84628.488
3010.56327.213
3110.36226.078
3210.10424.955
339.86324.091
349.70223.257
359.47222.144
369.19021.278
378.98620.437
388.79419.671
398.61319.057
408.44418.268
418.25617.525
428.05716.988
437.83416.544
447.63515.946
457.44915.420
467.30214.845
477.09014.336
486.94613.688
496.80513.210
506.67112.706
516.51912.259
526.41211.822
536.29211.323
546.19810.859
556.03610.400
565.9059.860
575.7869.550
585.6539.242
595.5378.912
605.3998.489
615.2668.079
625.1337.788
635.0267.522
644.9197.203
654.7736.960
664.6666.716
674.5486.494
684.4276.210
694.3275.926
704.2245.726
714.1175.458
723.9965.249
733.9155.010
743.8134.801
753.6944.574
763.5954.377
773.4644.167
783.3753.978
793.2923.801
803.1893.575
813.0903.369
822.9773.178
832.8492.967
842.7472.796
852.6252.652
862.5252.462
872.4082.273
882.3142.126
892.1951.954
902.0591.770
911.9411.604
921.8381.416
931.6741.226
941.5711.006
951.4090.857
961.2320.694
971.0810.472
980.8720.298
990.5680.113


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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