Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.1909.144
Median25.26427.202
Mean37.74947.049
75% Quartile52.89868.562
Interquartile Range41.70859.419

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1166.081227.233
2146.620193.391
3130.996180.111
4121.691169.185
5112.134161.085
6105.911149.803
7101.101141.856
896.087134.412
992.045126.966
1088.625121.359
1185.246116.695
1281.504111.536
1378.614107.615
1475.436103.679
1572.52499.347
1670.38895.905
1768.14391.886
1866.48387.793
1964.18384.198
2061.98881.370
2159.88178.646
2258.14875.624
2356.38673.519
2454.97170.466
2552.90768.563
2651.29166.932
2749.66064.462
2848.00062.516
2946.73560.271
3045.42557.824
3144.31055.611
3243.10153.390
3341.73851.657
3440.31049.968
3539.31647.683
3638.10545.886
3736.90144.120
3835.81142.499
3934.88741.187
4033.95239.490
4132.98737.882
4231.85236.710
4330.82935.737
4429.95634.422
4529.11433.261
4628.32631.985
4727.59230.851
4826.83629.404
4925.90828.334
5025.26427.202
5124.43326.197
5223.76125.213
5323.04024.089
5422.25823.043
5521.63722.009
5620.99320.793
5720.29520.095
5819.72119.403
5919.15818.661
6018.63317.715
6118.10916.800
6217.52916.151
6316.96515.559
6416.51114.851
6515.91214.314
6615.55713.778
6715.10113.289
6814.55512.667
6914.12812.047
7013.68511.613
7113.18911.034
7212.65310.584
7312.12410.070
7411.6329.624
7511.1889.143
7610.7088.726
7710.2098.284
789.8547.888
799.4757.519
809.0977.052
818.7266.628
828.2286.238
837.8395.812
847.4035.468
857.0135.179
866.5874.803
876.1954.431
885.8184.144
895.4623.812
905.1433.460
914.6803.147
924.2822.796
933.9102.445
943.4282.047
952.9971.783
962.4921.499
971.9731.123
981.5370.836
990.9970.544


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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