Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir



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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.981
Median2.776
Mean6.488
75% Quartile7.068
Interquartile Range6.087

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
158.187
243.183
335.102
430.446
526.395
623.508
720.874
818.745
916.984
1015.804
1114.697
1213.797
1313.042
1412.160
1511.419
1610.783
1710.198
189.596
199.109
208.682
218.330
227.932
237.653
247.297
257.068
266.875
276.567
286.314
296.072
305.816
315.581
325.340
335.169
344.984
354.759
364.584
374.398
384.235
394.094
403.938
413.790
423.672
433.583
443.467
453.345
463.227
473.111
482.978
492.877
502.776
512.683
522.594
532.472
542.382
552.269
562.168
572.102
582.032
591.959
601.859
611.774
621.713
631.647
641.579
651.528
661.473
671.415
681.358
691.294
701.245
711.185
721.137
731.083
741.033
750.981
760.933
770.882
780.839
790.796
800.739
810.688
820.644
830.591
840.550
850.515
860.467
870.420
880.380
890.335
900.289
910.245
920.197
930.145
940.086
950.046
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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