Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir



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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir ( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile15.78321.470
Median34.80158.469
Mean46.37170.356
75% Quartile66.436106.688
Interquartile Range50.65385.218

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1171.413236.734
2153.881209.771
3142.600199.176
4132.854190.449
5126.245183.969
6119.485174.924
7114.756168.534
8110.013162.529
9106.035156.497
10102.490151.933
1199.210148.121
1295.806143.882
1393.337140.641
1490.237137.370
1588.257133.745
1686.159130.843
1783.500127.426
1880.704123.911
1979.000120.788
2076.804118.306
2174.576115.890
2272.810113.178
2370.469111.268
2468.663108.461
2566.437106.689
2665.178105.154
2763.588102.800
2862.181100.917
2960.74798.713
3059.28196.267
3157.76394.009
3256.59391.698
3354.91089.858
3453.41488.033
3551.82985.508
3650.38683.472
3748.99181.426
3847.98979.503
3946.84877.914
4045.46275.811
4144.55573.763
4243.42572.236
4342.19970.944
4441.09369.161
4539.83767.548
4639.16665.734
4737.95764.080
4836.92261.910
4935.78660.260
5034.80158.469
5133.92856.838
5232.82755.202
5331.94453.283
5431.03751.445
5530.18849.579
5629.26447.317
5728.39345.982
5827.57944.635
5926.81343.161
6025.97441.234
6125.24139.323
6224.47237.938
6323.76736.653
6423.19335.089
6522.37833.882
6621.62132.661
6720.92931.531
6820.37730.077
6919.64328.605
7018.98027.562
7118.20726.159
7217.60625.055
7316.96023.785
7416.46722.673
7515.77521.468
7615.19220.418
7714.47619.301
7813.80918.296
7913.22517.360
8012.65116.170
8111.98415.092
8211.51314.103
8310.95613.024
8410.22412.157
859.65511.432
869.02510.495
878.4299.576
887.9718.870
897.3388.064
906.6377.220
916.1256.479
925.5595.663
934.7954.862
944.1643.978
953.3613.405
962.8742.806
972.2922.043
981.5991.489
990.7290.958


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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