Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir



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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.3330.162
Median6.0720.917
Mean11.3333.318
75% Quartile13.9803.141
Interquartile Range11.6472.979

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.57837.805
258.36925.859
349.45521.710
444.09318.602
539.74316.494
635.91813.846
733.48912.184
831.16710.773
929.1439.498
1027.3738.623
1125.7627.947
1224.3817.251
1323.4336.757
1422.4656.289
1521.5005.806
1620.6675.444
1719.9125.044
1818.8834.661
1917.9674.343
2017.3414.105
2116.6383.885
2215.9373.651
2315.2303.493
2414.5543.274
2514.0013.141
2613.4133.031
2713.0922.868
2812.6902.743
2912.2092.604
3011.8192.456
3111.4492.326
3210.9812.200
3310.6462.104
3410.2832.012
359.8861.890
369.5711.797
379.2151.707
388.9221.625
398.6601.561
408.3501.478
418.1221.402
427.9561.346
437.7351.301
447.4761.240
457.1961.187
466.9861.129
476.7311.078
486.5271.014
496.3150.967
506.0720.917
515.8500.874
525.6630.831
535.4440.783
545.2380.739
555.0440.695
564.8960.644
574.7290.614
584.5550.585
594.4100.554
604.2940.515
614.1140.477
623.9630.450
633.8150.426
643.6710.397
653.5590.374
663.4480.352
673.3080.332
683.1570.307
693.0230.281
702.8980.263
712.7840.240
722.6630.221
732.5720.200
742.4610.182
752.3260.162
762.2040.145
772.0770.127
781.9690.110
791.8780.095
801.7720.076
811.6580.058
821.5730.042
831.4780.025
841.3870.010
851.3050.000
861.1870.000
871.1020.000
881.0090.000
890.9340.000
900.8310.000
910.7450.000
920.6500.000
930.5730.000
940.4720.000
950.3690.000
960.2720.000
970.1770.000
980.0810.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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