Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr1.2650.0000.0180.18412.349
Apr-May5.7651.2890.0180.54644.510
Apr-Jun16.5751.3680.0421.51487.278

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1048.447
2028.954
3018.452
4011.285
507.103
604.238
702.574
801.439
900.634

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1101.654
284.622
377.938
472.441
568.366
662.695
758.704
854.971
951.246
1048.447
1146.126
1243.567
1341.629
1439.692
1537.572
1635.897
1733.954
1831.992
1930.285
2028.954
2127.684
2226.289
2325.326
2423.945
2523.094
2622.371
2721.288
2820.445
2919.484
3018.452
3117.532
3216.624
3315.925
3415.253
3514.357
3613.664
3712.994
3812.387
3911.903
4011.285
4110.708
4210.293
439.952
449.497
459.100
468.669
478.290
487.814
497.466
507.103
516.784
526.475
536.127
545.807
555.494
565.132
574.926
584.724
594.509
604.238
613.979
623.797
633.633
643.438
653.292
663.147
673.016
682.851
692.687
702.574
712.425
722.309
732.179
742.066
751.946
761.843
771.735
781.639
791.551
801.439
811.339
821.249
831.151
841.072
851.007
860.924
870.842
880.780
890.709
900.634
910.569
920.498
930.427
940.350
950.300
960.247
970.180
980.131
990.084


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence