Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Feb1.7743.7740.2390.0001.49032.777
Feb-Mar2.3865.2900.2390.0001.78034.396
Feb-Apr3.6715.2900.2390.0001.96536.260

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.90610.163
201.9644.739
301.1122.757
400.6471.624
500.3641.001
600.1840.573
700.0700.318
800.0000.137
900.0000.001

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.25635.925
211.63826.751
39.31423.270
48.07920.497
56.63518.514
65.98215.883
75.24314.141
84.83812.606
94.38111.172
103.90610.163
113.6309.371
123.3638.547
133.0977.955
142.8737.393
152.6766.807
162.5286.368
172.3735.881
182.2305.415
192.0905.028
201.9644.739
211.8624.472
221.7484.188
231.6413.998
241.5583.733
251.4683.574
261.3713.441
271.3053.246
281.2403.098
291.1622.932
301.1122.757
311.0492.605
320.9862.456
330.9412.344
340.8912.237
350.8402.096
360.8021.988
370.7571.884
380.7171.792
390.6871.718
400.6471.624
410.6121.538
420.5781.475
430.5431.424
440.5161.356
450.4901.297
460.4641.233
470.4381.177
480.4131.106
490.3861.055
500.3641.001
510.3410.954
520.3210.908
530.3010.856
540.2840.809
550.2640.762
560.2460.708
570.2330.677
580.2170.647
590.2000.614
600.1840.573
610.1710.534
620.1610.507
630.1460.482
640.1350.452
650.1230.429
660.1120.407
670.1030.387
680.0920.361
690.0820.336
700.0700.318
710.0600.295
720.0510.277
730.0430.256
740.0320.238
750.0230.219
760.0150.202
770.0060.185
780.0000.169
790.0000.155
800.0000.137
810.0000.120
820.0000.105
830.0000.089
840.0000.076
850.0000.065
860.0000.051
870.0000.037
880.0000.026
890.0000.014
900.0000.001
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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