Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jun10.9803.9480.0790.1260.9786.516
Jun-Jul30.03719.1483.6650.6515.31865.802
Jun-Aug57.71837.19219.9151.03115.816187.162

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10102.328131.711
2080.91299.041
3064.47877.865
4051.26558.708
5040.97943.283
6031.41729.200
7023.28119.096
8016.06211.263
908.5155.230

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1167.666214.413
2146.836188.108
3137.172177.773
4129.453169.260
5123.979162.940
6118.205154.119
7113.564147.889
8110.200142.035
9106.001136.157
10102.328131.711
1199.564127.999
1296.844123.872
1394.214120.718
1491.868117.537
1589.295114.013
1687.774111.194
1786.240107.877
1884.138104.469
1982.383101.443
2080.91299.041
2179.10896.705
2277.31394.087
2375.89792.245
2474.15189.542
2572.41987.837
2670.70086.363
2769.16684.105
2867.51282.303
2965.99080.197
3064.47877.865
3162.79975.719
3261.44273.528
3360.56471.790
3459.32970.070
3558.15967.699
3656.80465.796
3755.76663.890
3854.04562.108
3952.59060.641
4051.26558.708
4150.30656.837
4249.26255.450
4348.02854.281
4447.02852.675
4545.68951.232
4644.66949.619
4743.72948.159
4842.61046.258
4941.86444.825
5040.97943.283
5139.94841.890
5238.99140.504
5338.05238.894
5437.29237.369
5536.22935.836
5635.19934.002
5734.25432.932
5833.31731.861
5932.34830.700
6031.41729.200
6130.64327.732
6229.62726.679
6328.90625.711
6428.17224.545
6527.35023.653
6626.58722.758
6725.67721.937
6824.89120.887
6924.06319.836
7023.28119.096
7122.43118.108
7221.72717.337
7321.23316.454
7420.42215.687
7519.83314.859
7618.93114.141
7718.29413.381
7817.52412.700
7916.69512.066
8016.06211.263
8115.06410.538
8214.3989.873
8313.5569.148
8412.9268.566
8512.2018.078
8611.4947.448
8710.7346.828
8810.1306.352
899.4775.805
908.5155.230
917.6494.723
926.9074.162
936.0063.606
945.2862.988
954.6222.582
963.8422.154
972.8861.601
981.9741.190
991.0300.788


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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