Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May4.5001.2891.3450.0790.36232.161
May-Jun15.3101.3681.9760.0871.33074.929
May-Jul34.1244.95412.0600.2145.918144.463

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1039.57990.284
2023.67560.752
3015.41042.931
4010.38628.791
506.81019.303
604.52712.122
702.8057.659
801.3684.461
900.2122.078

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
193.280167.132
280.257142.627
369.969133.005
462.408125.083
556.612119.206
652.223111.013
748.942105.233
844.40799.813
941.66994.381
1039.57990.284
1137.17786.870
1235.21083.087
1333.66380.206
1431.73077.309
1529.77874.113
1628.41371.568
1726.96868.588
1825.77665.546
1924.73462.866
2023.67560.752
2122.60258.711
2221.59056.441
2320.57854.856
2419.49552.551
2518.84851.111
2618.04449.874
2717.35647.998
2816.65146.515
2916.05344.802
3015.41042.931
3114.79241.235
3214.24639.529
3313.76038.195
3413.09036.893
3512.66635.130
3612.13333.741
3711.68632.375
3811.16431.120
3910.77830.105
4010.38628.791
419.97727.544
429.56926.637
439.16525.884
448.75924.867
458.42823.969
468.11022.984
477.73322.109
487.38820.994
497.07820.172
506.81019.303
516.55418.533
526.32217.781
536.05516.925
545.83316.129
555.65615.346
565.42214.428
575.20913.902
584.99913.384
594.76212.828
604.52712.122
614.29311.443
624.08710.964
633.86310.527
643.71010.008
653.5799.615
663.4359.224
673.2628.868
683.1258.418
692.9517.971
702.8057.659
712.6747.246
722.5326.925
732.3486.561
742.1746.246
752.0355.909
761.8795.617
771.7675.310
781.6145.036
791.4874.782
801.3684.461
811.2094.172
821.1043.908
830.9813.621
840.8583.391
850.7523.198
860.6272.950
870.5332.706
880.4342.519
890.3172.304
900.2122.078
910.1101.879
920.0291.658
930.0001.439
940.0001.195
950.0001.035
960.0000.866
970.0000.646
980.0000.483
990.0000.321


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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