Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jun10.8100.0790.6310.1260.9686.516
Jun-Jul29.6253.66510.7150.6515.55565.802
Jun-Aug57.12719.91516.6001.03116.854187.162

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10103.229131.711
2081.83699.041
3065.32677.865
4052.03658.708
5041.66043.283
6032.06629.200
7023.74419.096
8016.41411.263
908.7155.230

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1168.615214.413
2147.709188.108
3138.109177.773
4130.364169.260
5124.842162.940
6119.173154.119
7114.336147.889
8111.078142.035
9106.833136.157
10103.229131.711
11100.395127.999
1297.702123.872
1395.213120.718
1492.670117.537
1590.156114.013
1688.667111.194
1787.105107.877
1885.027104.469
1983.365101.443
2081.83699.041
2180.04596.705
2278.21194.087
2376.78792.245
2475.02189.542
2573.35487.837
2671.52886.363
2770.04384.105
2868.37982.303
2966.84880.197
3065.32677.865
3163.67075.719
3262.31873.528
3361.33971.790
3460.17170.070
3558.94067.699
3657.59465.796
3756.57163.890
3854.81262.108
3953.31760.641
4052.03658.708
4151.06456.837
4250.07555.450
4348.82554.281
4447.75952.675
4546.45951.232
4645.37949.619
4744.45348.159
4843.29146.258
4942.56844.825
5041.66043.283
5140.63341.890
5239.65240.504
5338.71338.894
5437.98637.369
5536.86435.836
5635.80734.002
5734.93132.932
5833.98531.861
5932.86730.700
6032.06629.200
6131.21527.732
6230.16626.679
6329.44725.711
6428.71324.545
6527.90123.653
6627.16322.758
6726.18321.937
6825.42720.887
6924.49219.836
7023.74419.096
7122.87818.108
7222.21917.337
7321.66316.454
7420.84215.687
7520.23214.859
7619.37214.141
7718.71913.381
7817.91312.700
7917.06312.066
8016.41411.263
8115.39910.538
8214.6829.873
8313.8629.148
8413.2388.566
8512.4748.078
8611.7447.448
8710.9886.828
8810.3796.352
899.7265.805
908.7155.230
917.8524.723
927.0814.162
936.1713.606
945.4322.988
954.7602.582
963.9492.154
972.9801.601
982.0681.190
991.0710.788


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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