Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Cairn Curran reservoir ( Jan  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Jan1.0120.0000.0610.0000.5296.690
Jan-Feb2.6780.0000.1590.0000.99739.467
Jan-Mar3.2740.0001.3390.0001.12841.086

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.6878.623
202.6194.105
301.5972.456
401.0271.478
500.6610.917
600.3900.515
700.1980.263
800.0410.076
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.50237.805
213.69925.859
310.78221.710
49.08018.602
57.87416.494
66.98213.846
76.48712.184
85.67310.773
95.1749.498
104.6878.623
114.3597.947
124.1547.251
133.8256.757
143.5646.289
153.3985.806
163.1945.444
173.0435.044
182.8724.661
192.7644.343
202.6194.105
212.4983.885
222.3923.651
232.2793.493
242.1453.274
252.0223.141
261.9323.031
271.8202.868
281.7332.743
291.6662.604
301.5972.456
311.5332.326
321.4872.200
331.4242.104
341.3522.012
351.3001.890
361.2461.797
371.1871.707
381.1341.625
391.0681.561
401.0271.478
410.9901.402
420.9451.346
430.9021.301
440.8691.240
450.8311.187
460.7981.129
470.7651.078
480.7231.014
490.6930.967
500.6610.917
510.6330.874
520.6020.831
530.5770.783
540.5460.739
550.5150.695
560.4900.644
570.4690.614
580.4350.585
590.4160.554
600.3900.515
610.3740.477
620.3510.450
630.3270.426
640.3070.397
650.2920.374
660.2750.352
670.2530.332
680.2310.307
690.2130.281
700.1980.263
710.1830.240
720.1660.221
730.1500.200
740.1330.182
750.1180.162
760.1010.145
770.0820.127
780.0670.110
790.0530.095
800.0410.076
810.0270.058
820.0150.042
830.0010.025
840.0000.010
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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