Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.29532.241
205.55721.907
304.24215.656
403.39310.654
502.6777.248
602.0924.625
701.6212.966
801.1781.756
900.7290.837

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.11959.141
215.61950.562
313.49247.193
411.94644.420
511.00542.363
610.28139.495
79.71237.472
89.15335.575
98.74133.674
108.29532.241
117.94931.046
127.60029.723
137.27328.715
146.97327.701
156.64926.583
166.41825.693
176.19124.650
185.98323.586
195.76122.647
205.55721.907
215.36521.193
225.20720.397
235.05619.842
244.90119.034
254.75318.529
264.64018.095
274.51317.437
284.42116.916
294.32716.314
304.24215.656
314.15215.059
324.06914.457
333.97513.987
343.89613.527
353.80612.904
363.72312.412
373.64511.928
383.57411.482
393.47511.121
403.39310.654
413.30410.209
423.2319.885
433.1429.616
443.0649.252
452.9918.930
462.9348.576
472.8718.261
482.7997.860
492.7267.562
502.6777.248
512.6186.969
522.5566.696
532.5016.385
542.4496.095
552.3895.809
562.3265.473
572.2755.280
582.2165.090
592.1464.886
602.0924.625
612.0464.375
621.9934.197
631.9504.035
641.9053.843
651.8563.696
661.8063.551
671.7573.418
681.7133.250
691.6653.083
701.6212.966
711.5742.811
721.5352.690
731.4902.553
741.4442.434
751.4082.306
761.3532.196
771.3072.079
781.2611.975
791.2211.879
801.1781.756
811.1391.646
821.0931.545
831.0481.434
841.0041.346
850.9621.272
860.9101.176
870.8591.081
880.8181.009
890.7750.925
900.7290.837
910.6750.759
920.6270.672
930.5550.586
940.4920.489
950.4460.426
960.3830.358
970.3040.269
980.2360.203
990.1340.137


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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