Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.48357.663
2021.06642.632
3015.62032.879
4011.39924.075
508.51017.077
606.32010.910
704.5256.741
803.0463.727
901.6451.588

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
156.70895.672
248.98183.584
345.53678.835
442.36474.923
539.48872.018
636.95367.964
735.26265.100
833.16662.409
931.86359.707
1030.48357.663
1129.38055.956
1228.03854.058
1327.12752.607
1426.19351.144
1525.14849.523
1624.15348.226
1723.32846.699
1822.48745.130
1921.76243.738
2021.06642.632
2120.33441.556
2219.81140.351
2319.32139.502
2418.85138.257
2518.30537.472
2617.71136.793
2717.19135.753
2816.61834.923
2916.13133.952
3015.62032.879
3115.12831.890
3214.58230.882
3314.07830.082
3413.62729.290
3513.31728.200
3612.88527.325
3712.44226.450
3812.10625.632
3911.76024.960
4011.39924.075
4111.02223.219
4210.70422.585
4310.44622.052
4410.13421.321
459.82920.665
469.57419.933
479.30219.272
489.08818.414
498.80717.769
508.51017.077
518.29816.454
528.03415.837
537.76715.123
547.52614.450
557.28813.777
567.07812.977
576.86812.512
586.67212.050
596.52211.551
606.32010.910
616.07410.288
625.8779.845
635.6689.440
645.5128.955
655.3258.587
665.1428.220
675.0167.884
684.8547.459
694.6997.036
704.5256.741
714.3676.348
724.2116.045
734.0615.699
743.9305.401
753.8095.082
763.6164.808
773.4364.519
783.3194.262
793.1704.025
803.0463.727
812.8983.460
822.7543.218
832.5922.956
842.4592.747
852.2902.573
862.1922.351
872.0562.135
881.9111.970
891.7641.783
901.6451.588
911.5221.418
921.4001.233
931.2481.052
941.1110.854
950.9430.727
960.8170.595
970.6510.428
980.5100.309
990.2500.195


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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