Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.68632.241
206.66421.907
305.16815.656
404.14910.654
503.3147.248
602.6694.625
702.0622.966
801.5371.756
900.9950.837

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.19559.141
217.46350.562
315.08547.193
413.91244.420
512.71442.363
611.99139.495
711.23837.472
810.60235.575
910.08733.674
109.68632.241
119.27031.046
128.95729.723
138.59828.715
148.20827.701
157.90226.583
167.57125.693
177.29024.650
187.07823.586
196.87222.647
206.66421.907
216.45621.193
226.27120.397
236.12419.842
245.98819.034
255.83418.529
265.68218.095
275.53617.437
285.41716.916
295.27816.314
305.16815.656
315.06615.059
324.93614.457
334.84613.987
344.75713.527
354.66612.904
364.56012.412
374.43411.928
384.33111.482
394.23511.121
404.14910.654
414.06610.209
423.9549.885
433.8709.616
443.7689.252
453.6818.930
463.6108.576
473.5218.261
483.4547.860
493.3807.562
503.3147.248
513.2496.969
523.1936.696
533.1136.385
543.0476.095
552.9815.809
562.9165.473
572.8305.280
582.7835.090
592.7264.886
602.6694.625
612.6234.375
622.5514.197
632.4764.035
642.4083.843
652.3383.696
662.2893.551
672.2313.418
682.1843.250
692.1183.083
702.0622.966
712.0002.811
721.9532.690
731.9062.553
741.8442.434
751.7992.306
761.7492.196
771.6982.079
781.6381.975
791.5881.879
801.5371.756
811.4801.646
821.4131.545
831.3651.434
841.3231.346
851.2701.272
861.2211.176
871.1671.081
881.1191.009
891.0650.925
900.9950.837
910.9240.759
920.8590.672
930.7970.586
940.7120.489
950.6400.426
960.5570.358
970.4880.269
980.3800.203
990.2190.137


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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