Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir



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Exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.8325.171
200.5723.441
300.4332.624
400.3372.029
500.2671.613
600.2091.254
700.1580.982
800.1080.733
900.0550.477

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.04014.243
21.64510.334
31.4339.107
41.2718.206
51.1427.594
61.0496.815
70.9756.312
80.9245.873
90.8725.463
100.8325.171
110.7914.939
120.7594.692
130.7244.512
140.7034.337
150.6794.151
160.6564.008
170.6313.845
180.6143.684
190.5963.547
200.5723.441
210.5543.341
220.5343.232
230.5213.157
240.5063.051
250.4962.985
260.4822.929
270.4712.845
280.4572.780
290.4462.705
300.4332.624
310.4222.552
320.4142.479
330.4042.423
340.3952.368
350.3852.294
360.3742.236
370.3652.179
380.3542.127
390.3452.084
400.3372.029
410.3291.976
420.3221.937
430.3161.905
440.3091.861
450.3031.822
460.2961.779
470.2901.740
480.2821.691
490.2751.653
500.2671.613
510.2611.578
520.2551.542
530.2491.501
540.2441.462
550.2371.424
560.2311.377
570.2251.350
580.2201.322
590.2151.293
600.2091.254
610.2041.216
620.1971.189
630.1921.163
640.1861.132
650.1811.108
660.1761.084
670.1711.062
680.1661.033
690.1621.003
700.1580.982
710.1510.953
720.1450.930
730.1410.904
740.1360.880
750.1320.854
760.1270.831
770.1220.806
780.1180.783
790.1120.762
800.1080.733
810.1030.707
820.0990.682
830.0940.654
840.0880.630
850.0830.610
860.0780.583
870.0730.555
880.0660.533
890.0610.507
900.0550.477
910.0490.450
920.0390.418
930.0310.384
940.0240.343
950.0150.313
960.0070.279
970.0000.229
980.0000.186
990.0000.135


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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