Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.0610.618
Median0.1431.117
Mean0.2001.529
75% Quartile0.2751.941
Interquartile Range0.2151.323

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10.9507.556
20.7815.734
30.6965.142
40.6264.699
50.5804.394
60.5444.001
70.5083.743
80.4873.516
90.4653.301
100.4483.146
110.4333.023
120.4142.890
130.4002.793
140.3892.698
150.3742.596
160.3622.517
170.3492.427
180.3402.337
190.3302.260
200.3192.201
210.3082.144
220.2982.082
230.2912.040
240.2831.979
250.2751.941
260.2691.909
270.2591.860
280.2501.822
290.2441.778
300.2391.731
310.2321.688
320.2261.645
330.2201.612
340.2151.579
350.2101.535
360.2041.500
370.1991.466
380.1951.434
390.1901.408
400.1851.374
410.1811.342
420.1771.318
430.1721.299
440.1681.272
450.1641.247
460.1601.221
470.1561.197
480.1521.165
490.1471.142
500.1431.117
510.1411.094
520.1361.072
530.1321.046
540.1291.021
550.1240.996
560.1210.966
570.1170.948
580.1140.931
590.1110.911
600.1080.886
610.1040.861
620.1010.843
630.0980.827
640.0930.806
650.0890.790
660.0860.774
670.0830.759
680.0810.739
690.0780.719
700.0750.705
710.0720.686
720.0680.670
730.0660.652
740.0630.636
750.0610.618
760.0580.602
770.0540.585
780.0510.569
790.0480.554
800.0450.534
810.0420.515
820.0380.497
830.0350.477
840.0320.460
850.0290.446
860.0250.426
870.0220.406
880.0180.390
890.0140.370
900.0100.348
910.0040.328
920.0000.304
930.0000.278
940.0000.246
950.0000.223
960.0000.196
970.0000.156
980.0000.121
990.0000.078


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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