Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.2404.427
Median8.47716.356
Mean13.65925.921
75% Quartile19.10240.296
Interquartile Range15.86235.869

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
167.877112.402
256.93197.400
351.06891.506
447.41386.651
544.60383.046
641.96078.016
739.55274.462
837.75871.124
935.44467.772
1033.59965.237
1131.92663.121
1230.33160.769
1329.28258.972
1428.03157.159
1527.26455.152
1626.00853.547
1725.07551.660
1824.42149.722
1923.36648.002
2022.65946.639
2121.85045.314
2221.06543.830
2320.37442.787
2419.81441.259
2519.10340.297
2618.50539.466
2718.09238.195
2817.54937.182
2916.92736.002
3016.40834.698
3115.88733.502
3215.42732.285
3314.81331.324
3414.37330.375
3513.89429.074
3613.38328.035
3712.90027.001
3812.50026.039
3912.21125.251
4011.71024.221
4111.39523.231
4211.05122.503
4310.76321.893
4410.35821.061
4510.05920.319
469.77519.498
479.43718.762
489.06817.814
498.73917.108
508.47716.356
518.18415.686
527.88315.026
537.62014.270
547.33913.564
557.05812.865
566.87012.042
576.62111.569
586.36311.101
596.16510.600
605.9499.962
615.7169.349
625.5398.915
635.3758.522
645.1288.053
654.9187.700
664.7787.349
674.6247.031
684.4566.629
694.2496.232
704.0825.955
713.8885.591
723.6875.310
733.5414.991
743.4104.718
753.2394.426
763.0484.176
772.9223.914
782.7743.682
792.6173.468
802.4803.201
812.3572.962
822.1872.745
832.0512.512
841.8632.327
851.7332.174
861.6201.977
871.4581.787
881.3171.643
891.1541.479
901.0321.309
910.9141.161
920.7991.000
930.6340.844
940.4780.673
950.3350.564
960.1690.452
970.0570.310
980.0000.210
990.0000.115


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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