Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir



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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.0430.581
Median3.2781.128
Mean4.1071.648
75% Quartile5.2042.079
Interquartile Range3.1611.498

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.7819.198
213.0016.816
311.9356.048
410.9005.484
510.0925.085
69.4404.596
78.9834.275
88.6353.990
98.2233.723
107.8893.533
117.6053.382
127.3343.221
137.1073.102
146.8882.985
156.7002.862
166.4622.767
176.2562.658
186.1202.549
195.9862.458
205.8262.387
215.6982.320
225.5842.244
235.4432.196
245.3182.123
255.2062.079
265.1052.041
275.0081.983
284.9091.937
294.8141.888
304.7161.832
314.6301.783
324.5531.732
334.4481.693
344.3781.657
354.2881.605
364.2071.565
374.1381.525
384.0571.489
393.9791.459
403.9171.420
413.8401.383
423.7741.357
433.7181.334
443.6591.303
453.5961.276
463.5241.245
473.4601.219
483.4071.183
493.3431.156
503.2781.128
513.2221.103
523.1731.078
533.1201.048
543.0621.022
553.0040.992
562.9470.960
572.9040.941
582.8510.921
592.7940.900
602.7510.871
612.7070.844
622.6610.825
632.6110.806
642.5560.784
652.5000.767
662.4500.749
672.4030.733
682.3590.712
692.3140.690
702.2670.674
712.2250.653
722.1770.637
732.1350.617
742.0850.600
752.0430.581
761.9920.563
771.9410.545
781.9000.528
791.8490.512
801.7980.491
811.7450.471
821.6970.452
831.6540.431
841.5880.414
851.5320.398
861.4830.378
871.4400.357
881.3770.340
891.3320.320
901.2790.297
911.2300.276
921.1630.252
931.1030.225
941.0370.193
950.9710.170
960.8790.143
970.7910.104
980.6860.069
990.5000.028


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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