Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir



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Probability distribution for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.7770.581
Median1.2921.128
Mean1.6621.648
75% Quartile2.1212.079
Interquartile Range1.3441.498

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.0099.198
25.6526.816
34.8926.048
44.5205.484
54.1565.085
63.9224.596
73.7224.275
83.5683.990
93.4043.723
103.2613.533
113.1133.382
123.0053.221
132.9123.102
142.8172.985
152.7212.862
162.6202.767
172.5582.658
182.4982.549
192.4462.458
202.3922.387
212.3212.320
222.2672.244
232.2112.196
242.1622.123
252.1222.079
262.0892.041
272.0341.983
281.9921.937
291.9431.888
301.9151.832
311.8821.783
321.8351.732
331.7971.693
341.7611.657
351.7261.605
361.6921.565
371.6621.525
381.6201.489
391.5891.459
401.5581.420
411.5281.383
421.5041.357
431.4821.334
441.4521.303
451.4221.276
461.3951.245
471.3751.219
481.3451.183
491.3161.156
501.2921.128
511.2731.103
521.2551.078
531.2301.048
541.2061.022
551.1820.992
561.1590.960
571.1340.941
581.1160.921
591.0940.900
601.0760.871
611.0560.844
621.0360.825
631.0160.806
641.0000.784
650.9770.767
660.9570.749
670.9320.733
680.9100.712
690.8950.690
700.8800.674
710.8520.653
720.8330.637
730.8140.617
740.7930.600
750.7770.581
760.7590.563
770.7410.545
780.7230.528
790.7050.512
800.6850.491
810.6580.471
820.6330.452
830.6140.431
840.5940.414
850.5760.398
860.5530.378
870.5240.357
880.5010.340
890.4770.320
900.4560.297
910.4350.276
920.4050.252
930.3780.225
940.3520.193
950.3250.170
960.2850.143
970.2520.104
980.2030.069
990.1300.028


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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