Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1959) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep12.7772.3580.0007.40930.760
Sep-Oct20.8554.7500.0008.56780.083
Sep-Nov23.8045.2930.1979.67294.319

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.96457.663
2016.56342.632
3011.95232.879
408.61824.075
506.36017.077
604.58810.910
703.3256.741
802.1763.727
901.1751.588

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
149.00895.672
243.00883.584
340.03178.835
436.59874.923
533.15772.018
631.01467.964
729.18565.100
827.65962.409
926.30359.707
1024.96457.663
1124.08455.956
1223.05954.058
1322.03352.607
1420.94151.144
1520.21849.523
1619.29048.226
1718.63746.699
1817.82145.130
1917.08943.738
2016.56342.632
2116.04141.556
2215.59640.351
2315.07639.502
2414.63838.257
2514.09137.472
2613.64336.793
2713.17935.753
2812.78234.923
2912.36633.952
3011.95232.879
3111.56031.890
3211.11130.882
3310.77430.082
3410.45329.290
3510.12828.200
369.83027.325
379.51526.450
389.15725.632
398.87224.960
408.61824.075
418.27623.219
428.06322.585
437.79822.052
447.59921.321
457.41120.665
467.17119.933
476.96419.272
486.74018.414
496.56417.769
506.36017.077
516.20416.454
525.98015.837
535.82315.123
545.61614.450
555.41413.777
565.23212.977
575.08012.512
584.92812.050
594.76911.551
604.58810.910
614.41610.288
624.2719.845
634.1699.440
644.0458.955
653.9098.587
663.8058.220
673.6907.884
683.5627.459
693.4287.036
703.3256.741
713.2186.348
723.1156.045
732.9775.699
742.8425.401
752.7295.082
762.5734.808
772.4684.519
782.3754.262
792.2834.025
802.1763.727
812.0633.460
821.9503.218
831.8492.956
841.7452.747
851.6322.573
861.5372.351
871.4312.135
881.3431.970
891.2611.783
901.1751.588
911.0521.418
920.9531.233
930.8591.052
940.7510.854
950.6360.727
960.5200.595
970.4170.428
980.3170.309
990.1280.195


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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