Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1959) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Aug13.8941.9040.0176.43637.484
Aug-Sep26.6714.2620.01713.84478.871
Aug-Oct34.7496.6540.01715.00394.387

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1050.63577.429
2039.53160.430
3031.41049.239
4024.89338.729
5019.44329.581
6014.63320.037
7010.52712.096
806.8115.770
903.7631.810

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
179.410120.235
271.897106.626
367.270101.279
464.16396.873
561.61293.602
658.22289.037
756.10285.811
854.11082.779
952.21279.733
1050.63577.429
1149.32475.503
1247.92873.362
1346.84371.725
1445.33270.072
1544.15168.240
1643.27666.773
1742.43065.045
1841.63763.267
1940.67661.687
2039.53160.430
2138.45259.206
2237.69957.832
2336.67256.864
2436.03355.440
2535.19654.540
2634.34453.761
2733.64152.565
2832.77251.607
2932.18950.485
3031.41049.239
3130.82148.087
3230.21446.906
3329.48745.965
3428.91845.030
3528.17143.735
3627.49742.688
3726.77741.634
3826.21040.641
3925.47739.819
4024.89338.729
4124.26337.664
4223.60636.868
4322.97636.193
4422.42235.258
4521.91734.410
4621.52333.453
4720.93332.578
4820.39331.424
4919.90930.542
5019.44329.581
5118.83728.701
5218.46927.815
5318.05226.769
5417.43225.761
5517.01324.731
5616.61523.473
5716.01422.725
5815.41421.968
5915.12121.134
6014.63320.037
6114.23818.942
6213.81018.144
6313.40117.400
6412.86616.491
6512.44015.788
6612.01515.075
6711.58714.414
6811.19613.563
6910.86212.704
7010.52712.096
7110.02711.281
729.74310.644
739.3779.916
749.0529.285
758.6348.609
768.2848.026
777.9457.417
787.5536.878
797.1536.384
806.8115.770
816.4755.228
826.1494.744
835.7674.231
845.4923.832
855.1923.507
864.9503.101
874.6272.717
884.3242.434
894.0322.122
903.7631.810
913.3801.549
923.0121.277
932.6531.026
942.3690.769
952.0160.616
961.6470.467
971.2790.297
980.9600.189
990.5830.100


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence