Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1959) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep13.0622.4805.5440.0006.87130.760
Sep-Oct21.3334.2837.3290.0007.77180.083
Sep-Nov24.3635.1397.6370.1978.86694.319

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1045.34457.663
2034.77742.632
3027.23932.879
4021.26824.075
5016.82417.077
6012.92510.910
709.6786.741
806.5183.727
903.7261.588

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
173.81495.672
264.99083.584
360.17478.835
456.97274.923
554.47272.018
651.85767.964
750.19965.100
848.28062.409
946.54459.707
1045.34457.663
1144.04355.956
1242.64854.058
1341.51852.607
1440.45951.144
1539.38249.523
1638.19548.226
1737.28046.699
1836.40945.130
1935.54543.738
2034.77742.632
2133.84041.556
2233.10040.351
2332.41539.502
2431.65338.257
2531.13737.472
2630.22336.793
2729.54335.753
2828.79834.923
2928.04633.952
3027.23932.879
3126.53731.890
3225.97930.882
3325.30530.082
3424.78329.290
3524.22628.200
3623.70727.325
3723.17526.450
3822.63225.632
3921.93024.960
4021.26824.075
4120.78823.219
4220.37922.585
4319.94322.052
4419.49021.321
4518.92320.665
4618.54019.933
4718.13919.272
4817.58918.414
4917.23217.769
5016.82417.077
5116.42716.454
5216.00315.837
5315.64815.123
5415.25514.450
5514.78213.777
5614.43012.977
5714.05112.512
5813.64112.050
5913.29511.551
6012.92510.910
6112.52710.288
6212.0939.845
6311.7389.440
6411.3948.955
6511.1008.587
6610.8458.220
6710.5747.884
6810.2017.459
699.8947.036
709.6786.741
719.3726.348
729.0466.045
738.7905.699
748.3915.401
758.0795.082
767.7394.808
777.3774.519
787.0894.262
796.7624.025
806.5183.727
816.1663.460
825.8653.218
835.5762.956
845.2432.747
854.9042.573
864.6122.351
874.4232.135
884.2361.970
893.9901.783
903.7261.588
913.4021.418
923.1591.233
932.8571.052
942.5040.854
952.2100.727
961.9110.595
971.5530.428
981.1820.309
990.7660.195


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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