Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1959) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jul8.3948.0970.4260.0001.86849.685
Jul-Aug22.47920.9212.3300.0178.35987.169
Jul-Sep35.42126.4654.6880.01715.720128.556

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.89279.694
204.61661.419
302.67849.396
401.59138.141
500.96328.445
600.54618.646
700.27711.025
800.0735.350
900.0001.795

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.007125.723
224.309111.089
320.210105.339
417.233100.602
514.86497.085
613.13492.176
711.86588.707
810.85085.447
99.70682.172
108.89279.694
118.16277.624
127.56975.322
137.14773.562
146.72671.785
156.25569.815
165.91468.238
175.52166.380
185.22764.469
194.97262.769
204.61661.419
214.33460.104
224.08758.627
233.93157.586
243.69656.057
253.45155.090
263.28454.252
273.09652.968
282.95051.939
292.83550.734
302.67849.396
312.54648.160
322.43446.894
332.33045.885
342.23944.882
352.11743.494
361.99742.373
371.88341.245
381.79740.183
391.68239.305
401.59138.141
411.50437.005
421.41936.157
431.34835.438
441.29634.444
451.23233.544
461.17332.529
471.11831.602
481.07030.384
491.01629.455
500.96328.445
510.90827.524
520.86326.598
530.82125.509
540.77624.465
550.74523.403
560.70022.114
570.66121.353
580.62720.585
590.58719.744
600.54618.646
610.51317.560
620.48716.775
630.46216.049
640.43815.168
650.40914.492
660.38013.812
670.35213.186
680.33112.387
690.30111.587
700.27711.025
710.25810.278
720.2339.698
730.2159.040
740.1958.472
750.1737.867
760.1547.349
770.1326.807
780.1116.330
790.0915.893
800.0735.350
810.0564.871
820.0434.442
830.0243.987
840.0073.631
850.0003.340
860.0002.975
870.0002.628
880.0002.370
890.0002.084
900.0001.795
910.0001.551
920.0001.294
930.0001.053
940.0000.804
950.0000.651
960.0000.501
970.0000.325
980.0000.211
990.0000.113


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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