Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1959) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Aug14.08412.8241.9040.0176.49237.484
Aug-Sep27.02718.3684.2620.01713.85278.871
Aug-Oct35.19520.1536.6540.01714.88494.387

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1049.41277.429
2037.01460.430
3029.41949.239
4022.86638.729
5017.51129.581
6013.11020.037
709.14412.096
806.0485.770
903.1951.810

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
177.301120.235
269.783106.626
365.475101.279
462.11996.873
559.20593.602
656.75989.037
754.54385.811
852.70382.779
950.98479.733
1049.41277.429
1147.39775.503
1246.10273.362
1344.79871.725
1443.62770.072
1542.54868.240
1641.29266.773
1740.15965.045
1839.23863.267
1938.20761.687
2037.01460.430
2136.00659.206
2235.27657.832
2334.59456.864
2433.96355.440
2533.19054.540
2632.26953.761
2731.37352.565
2830.76151.607
2930.00850.485
3029.41949.239
3128.59948.087
3227.88346.906
3327.30345.965
3426.61445.030
3526.04143.735
3625.43442.688
3724.83341.634
3824.19840.641
3923.51439.819
4022.86638.729
4122.39637.664
4221.74236.868
4321.24236.193
4420.69235.258
4520.13134.410
4619.60233.453
4719.10932.578
4818.54731.424
4918.10730.542
5017.51129.581
5117.01028.701
5216.43227.815
5315.99126.769
5415.61725.761
5515.19424.731
5614.68923.473
5714.38822.725
5813.86821.968
5913.46821.134
6013.11020.037
6112.63918.942
6212.23318.144
6311.89117.400
6411.47116.491
6511.05815.788
6610.68615.075
6710.29714.414
689.88713.563
699.51612.704
709.14412.096
718.83311.281
728.50310.644
738.2119.916
747.8119.285
757.5508.609
767.2558.026
776.9447.417
786.6236.878
796.3796.384
806.0485.770
815.7105.228
825.4494.744
835.1094.231
844.7223.832
854.4673.507
864.2113.101
873.9562.717
883.6552.434
893.3942.122
903.1951.810
912.9441.549
922.6641.277
932.4091.026
942.0780.769
951.7290.616
961.4560.467
971.1420.297
980.8530.189
990.4620.100


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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