Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov2.9870.3080.5430.0271.1167.473
Nov-Dec4.0860.3080.6050.0641.85513.229
Nov-Jan5.5730.3080.6050.0657.73971.173

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.09712.602
204.2687.286
303.2555.063
402.5653.589
502.0332.646
601.6271.892
701.2731.372
800.9390.934
900.5860.531

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.07148.802
211.90231.978
310.09926.984
49.06823.484
58.32521.097
67.81018.278
77.30116.496
86.80114.961
96.40313.569
106.09712.602
115.82511.848
125.58911.066
135.41010.497
145.1389.947
154.9829.376
164.8178.947
174.6848.457
184.5477.981
194.3837.585
204.2687.286
214.1427.004
224.0006.689
233.9026.493
243.8176.197
253.7036.021
263.5945.871
273.4925.642
283.3995.466
293.3155.276
303.2555.063
313.1734.879
323.1024.689
333.0324.548
342.9604.417
352.8714.229
362.8174.090
372.7453.949
382.6873.824
392.6233.721
402.5653.589
412.4983.465
422.4363.376
432.3683.300
442.3113.200
452.2553.112
462.2083.012
472.1622.928
482.1162.816
492.0732.732
502.0332.646
511.9942.568
521.9452.493
531.9012.403
541.8652.323
551.8312.237
561.7862.144
571.7402.088
581.7052.031
591.6711.972
601.6271.892
611.5951.818
621.5561.765
631.5241.715
641.4951.656
651.4571.610
661.4181.563
671.3821.521
681.3451.466
691.3051.411
701.2731.372
711.2451.319
721.2071.278
731.1751.230
741.1451.188
751.1081.142
761.0761.101
771.0421.058
781.0111.019
790.9790.982
800.9390.934
810.9060.890
820.8680.849
830.8270.804
840.7920.766
850.7560.734
860.7280.691
870.6940.649
880.6610.615
890.6160.575
900.5860.531
910.5490.492
920.5050.446
930.4450.399
940.4100.343
950.3630.304
960.3230.261
970.2610.200
980.1980.149
990.1020.094


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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