Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1959) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
May1.5060.2870.2520.2050.21510.429
May-Jun5.1480.2870.2520.2050.70142.055
May-Jul13.4170.7132.0810.2052.57891.740

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.30436.510
201.15421.420
300.68213.978
400.4059.027
500.2456.057
600.1263.901
700.0412.555
800.0001.562
900.0000.781

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19.79981.814
26.81067.088
35.52861.335
44.63756.623
54.07153.146
63.51148.337
73.11344.981
82.83341.869
92.57338.795
102.30436.510
112.12534.633
121.99732.586
131.88331.052
141.73229.533
151.59827.889
161.47426.604
171.40525.130
181.30623.660
191.23722.396
201.15421.420
211.08620.496
221.03219.489
230.97118.800
240.92417.818
250.88217.217
260.83816.708
270.78815.949
280.75215.360
290.71114.692
300.68213.978
310.64813.342
320.61512.716
330.58312.234
340.55511.771
350.52911.154
360.50010.676
370.47610.213
380.4509.793
390.4309.457
400.4059.027
410.3878.624
420.3678.334
430.3518.094
440.3367.773
450.3197.492
460.3067.185
470.2926.915
480.2776.572
490.2616.321
500.2456.057
510.2305.823
520.2145.596
530.2025.338
540.1905.100
550.1764.865
560.1664.590
570.1564.433
580.1484.278
590.1374.112
600.1263.901
610.1183.697
620.1053.554
630.0973.423
640.0883.266
650.0803.148
660.0723.030
670.0632.923
680.0572.786
690.0492.651
700.0412.555
710.0362.429
720.0292.331
730.0232.219
740.0162.121
750.0112.017
760.0051.926
770.0001.830
780.0001.744
790.0001.663
800.0001.562
810.0001.470
820.0001.385
830.0001.292
840.0001.218
850.0001.155
860.0001.073
870.0000.992
880.0000.930
890.0000.858
900.0000.781
910.0000.713
920.0000.637
930.0000.560
940.0000.474
950.0000.416
960.0000.354
970.0000.271
980.0000.208
990.0000.144


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence