Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1959) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jun3.6420.0000.0000.0000.48731.626
Jun-Jul11.9120.4261.8290.0002.36381.311
Jun-Aug25.8062.3303.7610.0178.798118.795

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.41165.237
2020.89546.639
3014.93834.698
4010.59424.221
507.62716.356
605.3039.962
703.6065.955
802.1703.201
900.8621.309

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
165.767112.402
254.60297.400
348.59391.506
445.16486.651
542.29083.046
639.81078.016
737.20874.462
835.55771.124
933.17767.772
1031.41165.237
1129.82563.121
1228.27960.769
1327.28858.972
1426.09357.159
1525.28155.152
1624.06253.547
1723.24651.660
1822.54149.722
1921.53248.002
2020.89546.639
2120.12345.314
2219.32643.830
2318.67542.787
2418.15941.259
2517.46740.297
2616.85639.466
2716.49538.195
2816.05937.182
2915.38736.002
3014.93834.698
3114.48233.502
3214.03132.285
3313.48131.324
3413.07330.375
3512.63429.074
3612.17028.035
3711.74127.001
3811.36326.039
3911.01225.251
4010.59424.221
4110.26323.231
429.94922.503
439.67821.893
449.33021.061
459.07420.319
468.80319.498
478.48718.762
488.15317.814
497.86517.108
507.62716.356
517.33915.686
527.07115.026
536.85614.270
546.60113.564
556.31712.865
566.12112.042
575.92211.569
585.71111.101
595.49210.600
605.3039.962
615.0809.349
624.9318.915
634.7458.522
644.5628.053
654.3717.700
664.2437.349
674.0887.031
683.9626.629
693.7756.232
703.6065.955
713.4455.591
723.2605.310
733.1224.991
743.0104.718
752.8494.426
762.6814.176
772.5613.914
782.4133.682
792.2793.468
802.1703.201
812.0492.962
821.9012.745
831.7752.512
841.6202.327
851.4952.174
861.3911.977
871.2441.787
881.1161.643
890.9871.479
900.8621.309
910.7481.161
920.6341.000
930.5170.844
940.3620.673
950.2400.564
960.0860.452
970.0000.310
980.0000.210
990.0000.115


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence