Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total Inflows to Tullaroop reservoir ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan1.52057.9440.2820.0015.89257.944
Jan-Feb2.29767.2721.0010.0016.96567.272
Jan-Mar2.78567.5101.0090.0017.11767.510

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.2613.533
202.3922.387
301.9151.832
401.5581.420
501.2921.128
601.0760.871
700.8800.674
800.6850.491
900.4560.297

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.0099.198
25.6526.816
34.8926.048
44.5205.484
54.1565.085
63.9224.596
73.7224.275
83.5683.990
93.4043.723
103.2613.533
113.1133.382
123.0053.221
132.9123.102
142.8172.985
152.7212.862
162.6202.767
172.5582.658
182.4982.549
192.4462.458
202.3922.387
212.3212.320
222.2672.244
232.2112.196
242.1622.123
252.1222.079
262.0892.041
272.0341.983
281.9921.937
291.9431.888
301.9151.832
311.8821.783
321.8351.732
331.7971.693
341.7611.657
351.7261.605
361.6921.565
371.6621.525
381.6201.489
391.5891.459
401.5581.420
411.5281.383
421.5041.357
431.4821.334
441.4521.303
451.4221.276
461.3951.245
471.3751.219
481.3451.183
491.3161.156
501.2921.128
511.2731.103
521.2551.078
531.2301.048
541.2061.022
551.1820.992
561.1590.960
571.1340.941
581.1160.921
591.0940.900
601.0760.871
611.0560.844
621.0360.825
631.0160.806
641.0000.784
650.9770.767
660.9570.749
670.9320.733
680.9100.712
690.8950.690
700.8800.674
710.8520.653
720.8330.637
730.8140.617
740.7930.600
750.7770.581
760.7590.563
770.7410.545
780.7230.528
790.7050.512
800.6850.491
810.6580.471
820.6330.452
830.6140.431
840.5940.414
850.5760.398
860.5530.378
870.5240.357
880.5010.340
890.4770.320
900.4560.297
910.4350.276
920.4050.252
930.3780.225
940.3520.193
950.3250.170
960.2850.143
970.2520.104
980.2030.069
990.1300.028


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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