Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1036.76791.839
2023.34657.931
3016.39638.589
4011.73824.466
508.67115.760
606.4459.580
704.5005.906
802.8313.356
901.3461.513

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
182.732182.064
270.520153.243
361.760141.929
456.579132.618
551.846125.714
647.153116.095
743.758109.318
841.320102.970
938.98096.620
1036.76791.839
1134.81187.865
1233.06383.470
1331.74580.132
1430.49076.785
1529.11073.106
1628.04170.187
1727.02466.785
1825.64863.330
1924.46960.303
2023.34657.931
2122.48855.652
2221.85353.134
2321.25851.386
2420.38548.862
2519.63147.296
2618.86545.958
2718.19543.943
2817.57842.362
2916.98340.550
3016.39638.589
3115.93836.827
3215.37735.073
3314.85033.715
3414.42132.399
3513.96230.635
3613.43629.260
3713.04327.920
3812.60026.701
3912.21725.722
4011.73824.466
4111.32023.286
4211.05222.434
4310.68821.731
4410.33820.788
4510.05319.962
469.72119.062
479.41318.269
489.14617.265
498.88216.530
508.67115.760
518.37215.081
528.17314.421
537.91213.675
547.75112.986
557.52912.312
567.30311.527
577.09611.080
586.90010.641
596.68110.172
606.4459.580
616.1999.012
626.0338.613
635.8538.252
645.6437.823
655.4397.500
665.2567.179
675.0726.888
684.8446.521
694.6526.158
704.5005.906
714.3355.572
724.1625.314
734.0075.022
743.8564.770
753.6914.501
763.5784.269
773.3674.025
783.2363.808
793.0263.608
802.8313.356
812.6653.129
822.4872.923
832.3652.699
842.1892.521
852.0412.372
861.9192.180
871.7861.993
881.6421.849
891.4671.685
901.3461.513
911.2081.363
921.0761.196
930.9451.032
940.7710.851
950.6440.733
960.4790.608
970.3130.449
980.1500.331
990.0000.217


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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