Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.98849.417
208.63125.427
305.93815.834
404.36710.007
503.1796.617
602.2904.167
701.6162.642
800.9881.495
900.4200.576

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
142.847152.449
231.029116.325
325.973102.469
422.60391.524
520.19383.379
618.25472.979
716.96165.947
815.99959.608
914.88353.654
1013.98849.417
1113.10346.063
1212.45442.544
1311.66039.969
1411.11537.469
1510.53534.870
1610.08732.919
179.72930.694
189.34028.546
198.98426.766
208.63125.427
218.32624.175
227.90922.785
237.64421.924
247.37020.637
257.06919.878
266.87219.235
276.64118.258
286.34717.514
296.11416.717
305.93815.834
315.82115.076
325.60914.306
335.41713.734
345.28313.211
355.09912.467
364.96011.921
374.81811.377
384.68110.896
394.50710.502
404.36710.007
414.1829.542
424.0329.213
433.9138.934
443.7778.570
453.6608.251
463.5477.895
473.4477.596
483.3587.206
493.2626.915
503.1796.617
513.0786.353
522.9786.101
532.9075.799
542.8135.538
552.7545.257
562.6574.957
572.5574.778
582.4824.599
592.3864.414
602.2904.167
612.2093.942
622.1363.780
632.0733.630
642.0123.456
651.9523.321
661.8773.186
671.8063.063
681.7392.907
691.6732.751
701.6162.642
711.5452.497
721.4822.384
731.4222.255
741.3602.143
751.2942.022
761.2351.917
771.1521.806
781.0891.706
791.0411.613
800.9881.495
810.9281.387
820.8751.288
830.8271.180
840.7611.092
850.6951.018
860.6350.922
870.5800.827
880.5300.753
890.4820.667
900.4200.576
910.3760.495
920.3180.403
930.2650.311
940.2140.206
950.1440.136
960.0510.060
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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