Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1042.42558.073
2020.87822.935
3012.05711.791
407.5986.230
504.7063.524
602.9781.872
701.8101.006
800.9110.459
900.2460.108

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1131.979222.824
2106.101166.582
389.506144.585
476.939126.974
567.311113.725
661.15096.654
755.34785.056
850.73974.619
946.01464.898
1042.42558.073
1139.29052.751
1236.37947.269
1333.39243.339
1430.73639.598
1529.08935.798
1627.22933.013
1725.40629.912
1823.47027.002
1921.98124.657
2020.87822.935
2119.59321.359
2218.59619.649
2317.75918.611
2416.57717.092
2515.67516.216
2614.79315.484
2714.10014.392
2813.51913.576
2912.61312.720
3012.05711.791
3111.54711.010
3210.99710.233
3310.4039.667
349.9869.158
359.5618.450
369.1607.940
378.6827.441
388.3467.009
397.9876.661
407.5986.230
417.1545.833
426.8305.558
436.5595.326
446.2715.030
455.9474.774
465.6234.492
475.3504.260
485.0983.962
494.8843.744
504.7063.524
514.5023.333
524.2883.153
534.0962.941
543.9132.761
553.7282.571
563.5712.373
573.4142.257
583.2422.142
593.0942.025
602.9781.872
612.8481.735
622.7351.639
632.6161.551
642.5001.450
652.3901.373
662.2801.298
672.1581.230
682.0541.146
691.9161.063
701.8101.006
711.6870.931
721.5780.874
731.4940.810
741.4180.755
751.3180.697
761.2240.648
771.1390.597
781.0600.551
790.9810.510
800.9110.459
810.8330.413
820.7640.372
830.7010.329
840.6170.294
850.5480.266
860.4950.229
870.4310.194
880.3740.168
890.3140.139
900.2460.108
910.1920.082
920.1380.054
930.0870.026
940.0370.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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