Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala


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Product list for Turon River at Sofala


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Exceedance probability for Turon River at Sofala(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.89996.372
2014.01547.396
308.87928.096
406.08316.934
504.22510.794
602.9316.604
701.9164.147
801.1252.409
900.4581.123

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1102.835283.662
272.671220.809
357.268196.225
448.235176.496
540.759161.581
635.671142.182
732.688128.799
829.833116.529
927.227104.817
1024.89996.372
1122.99689.625
1221.27182.492
1319.93577.244
1418.59272.127
1517.77966.792
1616.87062.782
1716.06158.203
1815.33653.789
1914.57650.136
2014.01547.396
2113.35444.839
2212.74842.009
2312.14440.263
2411.61737.661
2511.13536.135
2610.59034.845
2710.04332.893
289.69331.412
299.33029.834
308.87928.096
318.63526.611
328.26025.111
337.94024.003
347.62522.995
357.29021.570
367.01320.530
376.85719.499
386.58718.595
396.30717.857
406.08316.934
415.80416.072
425.59115.468
435.37214.955
445.19114.292
455.03313.713
464.87413.070
474.72912.533
484.52711.836
494.36311.320
504.22510.794
514.08810.331
523.9019.891
533.7439.368
543.6158.918
553.5158.436
563.3777.927
573.2477.625
583.1437.324
593.0297.015
602.9316.604
612.8156.233
622.7005.967
632.5835.722
642.4935.440
652.3785.222
662.2745.006
672.1734.810
682.0824.563
691.9804.318
701.9164.147
711.8443.921
721.7383.746
731.6703.548
741.5843.376
751.5233.193
761.4323.035
771.3632.868
781.2862.720
791.2062.582
801.1252.409
811.0712.253
820.9952.110
830.9211.955
840.8511.831
850.7831.727
860.7221.593
870.6631.461
880.5941.360
890.5281.245
900.4581.123
910.3951.015
920.3350.896
930.2530.778
940.1830.647
950.1240.561
960.0570.469
970.0000.350
980.0000.262
990.0000.175


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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